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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RCJIII who wrote (22795)	12/10/2000 6:23:39 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 29382

RCJ, ORCL is likely to beat estimates because the forecasts have already been lowered. SUNW is almost unique these days in that forecasts have actually been increased. ORCL's bottom line growth rate is still higher than its PE, making it an attractive buy. The only concern, I believe is revenue growth. SUNW's PEG is also attractive. DNEX's move could be in either direction, but I like its chances. DNEX is the dominant player in their niche and I haven't seen any hint that their position is being threatened. I don't know of any site that provides free block trading information. If the information was available for free, it would have to be on Nasdaq's web site. There's a ton of good information available there and its all free. For example, take a look at the sector overview and earnings forecast: dynamic.nasdaq.com <• Consensus earnings forecasts for the I/B/E/S universe decreased 1.7% and 1.9% over the past month for 2000 and 2001, respectively. This is a relatively normal trend coming out of the 3Q-confession season. I/B/E/S revisions ratios (# of estimates raised / # of estimates lowered) were 0.85 for 2000 and 2001, with expected annual earnings growth of 18.0% and 20.2%. • Despite the wave of negativity that has swept over the market during third-quarter confession season, corporate earnings remain quite healthy. As of October 25, 2000, 1842 of 4768 (38.6%) of the I/B/E/S domestic universe has reported third-quarter results. Of these 1842 companies, 1110, or 60.3% have beaten I/B/E/S consensus, 404 (21.9%) have missed consensus, and the remaining 328 (17.8%) have come in on target. For the comparable period, third-quarter reporting season for the S&P 500 is two-thirds complete, with 60.1% beating consensus, 15.9% missing consensus, and the remaining 24.0% reporting on target. Third-quarter year-over-year growth for the I/B/E/S universe and the S&P 500 are close at 19.6% and 19.5%, respectively. The most significant earnings results (as measured by the SUE score) are coming from Technology, Energy, and Health Care. • Technology companies continue to be the driving force in terms of corporate earnings growth, showing 47.3%. Thus far, 488 of 1089 (44.8% of the sector) have reported 3Q earnings with 72.7% beating consensus, 16.0% missing, and the remaining 11.3% reporting on the money. The sector, as a whole, is largely surpassing expectations, reporting 13.3% above consensus. All industries within the sector are showing across-the-board positive surprises and earnings growth, in fact, all industries with the exception of Electronic Systems/Devices have significant SUE scores above 1.0. Consensus earnings forecasts for 2000 and 2001 have come down 1.7% and 2.7% over the past month, largely due to lowered guidance by such technology bellwethers as Intel, Apple, and Dell Computer. • Consensus earnings forecasts continue to increase in the Energy sector. Over the past month, 2000 consensus forecasts increased 4.7%. This trend has been going on for some time with estimates up 31.1% over six months. For 2001, estimates are up 4.1% over the past month and 22.9% over six months. Despite these increased expectations, the Energy sector continues to show impressive 3Q earnings results, beating consensus by an amazing 11.9%. Year-over-year earnings growth thus far is 108.8%.> dynamic.nasdaq.com