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To: fyodor_ who wrote (22112)	12/11/2000 8:12:37 AM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

fyo, I think the sad fact is that it is just not possible to determine the result of an election with the current system in Florida to within a couple of percentage points. Were talking 0.001% at this point. Scumbria

To: fyodor_ who wrote (22112)	12/11/2000 2:10:44 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 275872

fyo, re:<I think the sad fact is that it is just not possible to determine the result of an election with the current system in Florida to within a couple of percentage points.> Not true for two reasons. First, the TRUE undercount of votes is much less than 1% of the votes cast, since MOST of the votes rejected by the machines are true NON-VOTES, even using the liberal "Broward County Rules." Second, NONE of the recounted undervotes have deviated from the expectation that the true undercount in any particular county is just a random selection of voters. Gore only gained votes in Broward (complete recount), Palm Beach (partial recount) and Dade (partial) counties because these counties had a Democratic plurality. In particular, in Broward county, which is the only large county to do a complete manual recount, Bush received more than his proportional share of undercount votes. ............................................BUSH........GORE Broward county total votes: 177,323........386,561 Broward county recount gain: 579............1,146 Gain as percentage of total: 0.3265%........0.2965% Statistically, if we assume that 0.00306 of Bush voters and 0.00306 of Gore voters could not punch the card completely, there should have been 542 and 1183 recount votes for Bush and Gore respectively. The actual numbers are close enough to the prediction (within about one square root) that it is likely that mispunching ballots is a random selection. Therefore it is infinitesimally UNLIKELY that Gore could gain 950 votes in a complete recount of 6 million votes. The true undercount within those six million is about 18000, and each candidate would get 9,000 plus or minus 100 votes. The chances of Gore getting 9,500 and Bush 8,500 are incredibly small. The Florida supreme court's decision to PREVENT a FULL recount in Dade and Palm Beach counties is proof of their policial bias. This was obviously done because all the un-recounted precincts are Republican. In fact, the Dade county board stopped counting for precisely that reason -- they knew that any additional votes gained in a recount would be for GWB and not for AG. In particualr, the Florida Supreme court showed their RACIST BIAS AGAINST LATINOS by preventing Palm Beach county from completing the count. Having made my point that in a full recount Gore has no chance of overturning Bush, then why is Bush trying to stop the recount? The reason is that the Florida court DID NOT ORDER a full recount. The said that any partial county recounts would be accepted, in fact *they ordered that ONLY a partial recount would be accepted in Dade and Palm Beach counties! They also set an extremely tight schedule which would make a full recount almost impossible. By doing this, they allowing the Democratically controlled counting boards to PICK THE PRECINCTS they want to recount. Since over 80% of all of Gore voters are in less than 30% of the precincts,* this partial recount greatly helps Al Gore at the expense of George Bush. The US media is too dumb to see what's going on. Thank God the US Supreme Court isn't. Petz