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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (64157)	12/12/2000 1:19:35 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Respond to of 99985

The daily QQQ rose above a previous peak and changed from negative to positive. It's a simple buy signal with a stop at 66.89. The weekly is still negative but the current bar is higher than last weeks. The first trendline was broken on the 5th. You can see the next one waiting at around 80. swinglines.homestead.com The QQQ P&F chart has a bottom bullish price objective of 80 and the breakout count of 97 xocharts.com Think it'll happen? No -- why not? I think we have a good run to 3500 on the NAZ over the next 60 days. Then it's done. Pertinent info for interpretation of a Gann Swingline chart as follows: 1. Upswing - To go from a downswing to an upswing, the swing upwards must have two consecutive higher highs. 2. Downswing - To go from a upswing to a downswing, the swing downwards must have two consecutive lower lows. 3. New Uptrend - Occurs when prices take out the last peak (line changes from black to blue). 4. New Downtrend - Occurs when prices take out the last valley (line changes from blue to black). 5. Support - The bottom of the previous valley. 6. Resistance - The top of the previous peak. Take care, Eric

To: Les H who wrote (64157)	12/12/2000 11:52:47 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

more on MARKET EARNINGS from First Call If you thought the pace of downward revisions were going to decelerate as we neared the holiday season, it is not happening yet. Just since last week, expectations for earnings growth for the S&P500 have dropped from 10.0% to 8.4% for 4Q00, from 10.5% to 9.5% for 1Q01, and from 9.4% to 8.6% for 2Q01. For the full 2001 year, the drop was from 11.5% to 10.7%. All of these current expectations are likely to go significantly lower, particularly in the first few weeks of January when the info slowdown during the holiday period is over. Therefore, any Santa Claus rally in the market could be a bear trap. Until the market has better visibility on when earnings growth may bottom and how deep that bottom may be, it is unlikely there will be a sustained rally. That likely will not happen until we at least get through the first few weeks of January. The expectations for the S&P500 technology sector dropped from 14% to 11% for 4Q00 and from 17% to 15% for the full 2001 year. As the biggest sector in the S&P, the downward revisions in the tech sector are the biggest factor in the decline in the overall numbers, but with considerable help from consumer cyclicals, and to a lesser extent the basic materials (papers, metals, chemicals). The capital goods sector, which normally lags, is now starting to contribute to the downward revisions.