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To: eddieww who wrote (46634)	12/12/2000 1:03:18 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i have explained this before, but i'll happily take another stab at it. what we are referring to here, is the NET short position. the overall short position , which includes all contracts put on for hedging and arbitrage is almost 400,000 contracts large. however, what is important from our point of view is the OTHER SIDE OF THIS TRADE. namely, the record net long position of the small speculators, who have NEVER before in history been right about this market. they were heavily net short at every significant bottom of the past 15 years, and equally heavily net long shortly before, and during, every major decline. this fact is the biggest single chink in the bull's armor...it is what has kept me bearish on the intermediate term trend regardless of how 'oversold' the market looks or how blatantly the Greenspan put is being waved in front of our faces. everybody who can, and wants to be long, is in fact long.