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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sergio H who wrote (22861)12/23/2000 3:16:18 PM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29382
 
The announcement between Procter & Gamble and Gum Tech is not the end of the story. In fact, it is only the beginning of the story. It is my belief that P&G delayed launch of their dental gum until early January so they could defer the cost of launching the product to next quarter. Given the decline in P&G's stock, it only makes sense that their management decided to preserve their fourth quarter profit and move the launch so they could have more time to generate sales to offset the cost to launch the product. I estimate that Gum Tech will sell about $20 million of dental gum to P&G in 2001, with approximately 30% of that coming in the first full quarter of production as they fill the channel. Given that Gum Tech only needs about $2.5 million in gum sales to make a profit, the gum operations should be profitable next year on sales to P&G alone. Sometime ago, Gum Tech said that they were working on a mouthwash that contained Microdent, the same active ingredient in Breath Asure Dental Gum. I noticed that P&G registered a trademark for Crest Dental Gum and a new mouthwash. This is purely speculation, but it is possible that Gum Tech is working with P&G on a new mouthwash as well as dental gum.

Gum Tech also said that they will start making nicotine gum for the joint venture with Swedish Match in the first quarter of 2001. According to Gum Tech's SEC filings, the joint venture will pay "full cost" for nicotine gum, which includes the cost of raw materials and some of Gum Tech's overhead. This, combined with improved plant efficiency resulting from production of dental gum for P&G, should lead to improved margins for the gum business, and profitability for the company. Last week's announcement that Gum Tech retained Credit Suisse First Boston as their investment banker fills in another piece of the puzzle. CSFB is a very reputable investment banker and may initiate coverage on GUMM at some point. A lousy market and excessive short selling have pushed GUMM way below what it is worth IMO. I believe that the stock is an easy double to quadruple from 7 over the next few months.