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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (2294)	12/13/2000 8:50:03 AM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 52153

Probably will be a sigh of relief rally and given the twist and turns, I doubt that it was already priced in. If there is no concession, which is possible, any rally will be demolished. If a concession takes a long time to come then I would expect even the relief rally to extend itself. These comments are based, not on the merits, or demerits, of either Bush or Gore, but just on having the whole thing end.

To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (2294)	12/13/2000 1:06:58 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Scott, <<VICL>> It's very hard for outsiders to judge the naked DNA vaccine program. Relatively vague comments by MRK (was the guy even necessarily referring to the VICL technology when predicting ultimate success?) probably aren't going to ignite enthusiasm for VICL, although I note that VICL is going to try to play up the news itself today. (So there might yet be a good short-term play here). The VICL cancer programs are likely to be the mid-term drivers of the stock. I'm generally cautious on all the cancer vaccine stocks - it's going to be hard to distinguish between the numerous programs that are likely to achieve moderate efficacy, and so my guess is sales will not be spectacular. (Of course if someone produces dramatic results things would be very different). VICL hit over $70 in the bubble, so it's hard to argue that it has been totally ignored by the market. They've also had to weather the resignation of their CEO and the Isner gene therapy problems. That said, its current price seems pretty reasonable, and IMO it would be a sensible part of a bundle of biotechs. (I currently own a very little bought at around $17 - I sold part in the bubble, but nowhere near the actual top, alas.) Peter