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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (81497)	12/13/2000 8:46:46 AM
From: sportsman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Doug, Nabors has opened a yard here and has brought in several rigs. A yard has also been set up rebuilding stacked rigs which I have heard are all Nabors iron. I don't recall Nabors ever having any rigs operating in this area even during the early 80's. There is no doubt Boom 2000 has arrived here. Water hauling trucks are literally running over each other. I suspect this is this case in every area of the state with large natural gas reserves. Good luck, Sportsman ps I think Gore has finally fallen and can't get up :-) 3" inches of fresh snow on the ground this am

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (81497)	12/13/2000 11:26:12 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Doug re: the continuation of Boom 2000 I don't think anyone doubts the continuation of the Boom - "on the front lines" activity-wise; it's on "Wall Street" where the continuation of the Boom is of concern and is in doubt. Same thing happened in 97-98; the stocks & the sector sold off on Wall Street - directly into the absolute sweet-spot peak acceleration of earnings & frontline activity on the frontlines. Wall Street saw the turn then in both commodity prices & frontline activity - well ahead of the actual rollover to $10 crude(the OSX sold off well before we ever saw $10 crude); the question is - are they seeing it here as well ? ... we seen to forget here; that Wall Street is not looking to determine when the sector collapses/bottoms & then get out before it does. Instead; what they are looking for, is when the "peak" of the cycle appears on the near horizon & then they start selling - to give them time to be completely "out" before we all realize we're at the peak & the downward slope of the commodity price & Oilpatch activity leg of the cycle has started. We should be looking for the "peak" and not the bottom, or the collapse of this cycle... THAT is the biggest mistake that people will make here. Rule #1 - be out before the peak; because once consensus has been reached that we are at the peak, or just saw the peak - that rollover leg to the downward slope of "shareprices" for the cycle is often very violent, very swift and ignores the still 9-12-15 month forward looking positive fundamentals of earnings and even commodity prices remaining historically positive. And even if the downward slope of this cycle is not going to be swift & violent because of the fall from "peak" commodity price, or frontline activity levels will be to one of still historically positive levels; don't think that the Street is going to run the OSX to new highs with $22-$26 Oil and $3-$4 Nat Gas; than what they were at $35 Oil & $6/$8 Gas...a slow grinding retrace ultimately goes to the same bottom as a swift violent collapse. It's getting out before the "peak" not the "bottom/collapse" that should be JOB #1 for Oilpatch investors. To beat the Street to the exits; at this stage of the oilpatch cycle it is no longer just about "reading" the fundamentals of frontline activity, earnings momenteum & commodity prices for the sector; I think most of us are in agreement there; but rather it is equally about "reading" the fundamental sentiment of the traders on Wall Street. As to be out at the "shareprice" peak; you don't just have to beat the appearance on the horizon of peak fundamental commodity prices, frontline activity or earnings; you have to beat the peak of investor sentiment & momenteum as well - period. ... my greatest concern is that the FUNDAMENTAL "sweetspot" for earnings & frontline activity reporting to accelerate shareprices during this cycle is going to fall right into the March to May 2001 period off of Q4 & Q1 earnings reporting; and this is very unfortunately going to directly coincide with the aftermath of Q1 & Q2 reporting for the broad market which imho; is "not" going to be bringing good news, or results to the marketplace. My other concern is that we have allready seen the FUNDAMENTAL peak of sentiment for the Oilpatch - yes kiddies; Elvis may have allready left the building... a couple of months ago - in August & September; when investors "really" priced in the threat of a Nat Gas spike due to weather related demand/supply crisis and all of the wonderfull earnings & activity that would create.... I pray we get in under the final capitulation leg to the broad market Bear and get one last window of opportunity to mount one last major upside rally leg to new highs in the OSX. If we are to go to new highs - that March to May window will be the timeframe in which it happens... that will be the sweetspot turn; fundamentally for service, manufacturing & drilling companies; bringing the Peak of Oilpatch activity into the near horizon; ... unfortunately - it may be directly into negative US Economic news & stats - potentially substantial contraction in US GDP , poor earnings performance in the broad market & a broad market still collapsing. If we get a Fed Cut and a bit of a Bush relief rally in the Spring - maybe we can stave off the capitulation leg of this Bear Market long enough to mount one final run to new OSX highs... but, I doubt it. There will certainly be adequate volatility for trading; but it is no longer the underlying positive fundamentals of commodity prices, or frontline activity that determines our fate here; it whether we've allready seen the peak in investor sentiment for the oilpatch; and if not - will the OSX be able to mount one final rally leg to new highs against the grain of a negative market & economic news ? That does not offer very attractive Risk vs Reward opportunity for Oilpatch investors... as that is one "peak" that most definitly has allready come & gone...