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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (22371)	12/13/2000 3:38:22 AM
From: fyodor_	Respond to of 275872

Cirruslvr: when the KM133 chipset becomes available in VERY good volumes, which I don't expect until late Q1/early Q2 because we're dealing with VIA, we will find out for sure ... Late Q1 is my expectation as well. The SiS730 looks like it will hit volume in late Q1 too. The SiS730 only supports SDR, but in the short-term this would probably not be an issue (with the high DDR prices). The speed of the processors doesn't matter, just the pricing of their fastest processors. Back then the K6-2 was ALL AMD had, but now AMD has a high-end processor that is selling for what the K6-2 sold for and the Duron is pushed below this. Well, as you state, the K6-2/400 had JUST been introduced at that time. Right now, we are eagerly awaiting a new Athlon speed grade, as well as an "Athlon+" (call it AthlonPRO? ;)). Additionally, at the time of the K6-2/400 intro, Intel's fastest was (IIRC!) around a 400MHz PII. However, your underlying point is well taken; Athlon prices are indeed very, very low. IMHO, AMD really needs to push the Palomino and Morgan as better than their predecessors. No "with performance-enhancing cache" BS. AMD needs to get back to a pricing structure with the top processor demanding around 500-600 dollars. Btw, I must say I'm amazed that the Duron hasn't cannibalized Athlon sales. The performance delta is basically nil. On second thought... the reason seems to be that Athlons virtually follow Duron pricing :/ One note about the Q4 slowdown: In retrospect, this was pretty darn obvious. Ok, so things often are, hindsight be 20/20 and all that ;). Still, oil prices and natural gas prices in the US are sky-rocketing - I heard about the insane 15x increase in Calif. natural gas prices, YoY. Ouch! That's something sure to put a dent in many peoples disposable income (+ Christmas savings). Additionally, this Christmas also features iPaq's, digital cameras, PDAs, eBooks etc. etc. etc. to an extent never seen before. There's a lot of competition for space under the tree ;). However, I don't necessarily think this is a good indicator for Q1 sales: - None of the above products are replacements for computers, even iPaq-style products. - Natural gas prices, esp. in California, look like they will head down sharply, although probably not to the levels seen a year ago. - This whole presidential election debacle will (probably!) be over. - Many people hoping to get computers for Christmas didn't. They'll be out buying, hopefully in drones. The ones who got high-end peripherals like digital cameras will discover that their old systems just can't cut it. Heck, their peripherals may not even be compatible with their old systems (USB and all that). I was down at a local SD shop (probably the largest SD chain here in Denmark) yesterday... and with all the caveats of only talking to one guy in one store, his unequivocal opinion was that, by far, most people upgrading (in general, not necessarily for Christmas) were upgrading from PRE K6-2 levels (Pentium1's, K6's and a surprising number of 486's). These systems DON'T HAVE USB. Most have a memory type which cannot be found in stores - not that these people EVER upgrade anything that requires opening the computer [case]. People with these systems quite simply won't be able to use many features of their new gifts... connecting that new PDA / iPaq-style tablet / camera to the computer without using USB is often not possible. Editing photos with 8, 16 or even 32 MB RAM isn't something I would wish on my worst enemy. Heck, many printers and scanners these days don't even feature parallel ports. Anyway, to try and summarize this (way too) lengthy post, I think there's good reason to believe that computer sales will pick up a bit in Q1. The economic situation, esp. with regards to heating bills, is still something of an unknown. Inventory build-up doesn't figure (too much) into total computer sales, but will make it (significantly) harder for AMD and Intel to reach their Q1 CPU targets. -fyo

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (22371)	12/13/2000 5:22:27 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Cirrus, What do you see as a common denominator for those 2 periods? IMO, it is that AMD didn't hold MHz crown. The fact that AMD processor has a better IPC than P4 is completely irrelevant to 90% of the buyers. The bottom line is: "MHz sells" (TM Jim McMannis). On the positive note, AMD Athlon has a decent performance, price/performance, MHz lead vs. Piii. Palomino will have to be MHz competitive vs. P4, or will need to have even higher IPC than Tbird if we ever want to see $500+ processor prices. Joe

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (22371)	12/13/2000 8:55:22 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Cirruslvr: Athlon Today K6-2 11/16/1998 $254/1.2GHz $283/400MHz $223/1.1GHz $213/380MHz $179/1GHz $187/366MHz Although it'd be nice to have higher 1 gig+ prices, it is the overall mix that matters most to the bottom line. If AMD can successfully raise demand in the 1 gig+ range to the point where 50% or more of there processors fetch $180 or more, their ASP's should do just fine...Dropping prices in this range seems like a very good tactic to me to not only improve mix in effort to achieve 50% in this range but also increase market share, given the absence of competition above 1 gig...I agree that it is too bad that this opportunity for market share increase has occurred during a weak phase in the overall PC market...

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (22371)	12/13/2000 10:20:11 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: comparison of current Athlon prices to K6 prices when the K6-2 400 came out I think you are missing two factors: 1 - In the earlier period, AMD was producing very few parts faster than 300MHZ - wheras now volume at 1GHZ and above is substantial. 2 - In the earlier period, Intel was selling its fastest 15% or so binsplits at prices above $600 - whereas now they have "lowered the boom" so that the equivalent is the $300 933 P3. The fact that AMD is maintaining these prices on high volume parts, during a market slowdown, when Intel has cut its prices in half demonstrates the market success of the Athlon. Judging by the market's reaction, AMD wasn't expected to do nearly this well under these conditions. Regards, Dan