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To: Oblomov who wrote (47129)	12/13/2000 3:35:38 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

I don't know that either statistic has much meaning. The BLS twists them both so ... Yes I am an engineer, but more important than cranking out numbers is being able to generalize, classify, interpret and make decisions. I think the numbers concerning the growth in credit (taken on by corporations and individual) in recent years, the concurrent rapid growth in the dollar value of financial assets, and the growth of the financial sector share of $'s versus other sectors -- these things point to an inevitable conclusion: A very hard landing. My gut feel is that unemployment will go up by several percentage points by mid-2002. I think real (I'm sorry, I think that BLS number is a real fiction now) GDP will start to really contract in the 2nd quarter next year ... None of these things were inevitable going back as recently as perhaps 1997, but the chain of events that has happened since have made them more sure -- especially the reliquidation that occured in Oct-Nov 98 ... now they seem at least, very likely ... M Burke just said he sees another midnight rate cut in the works. That's a real possibility, but I don't think it will accomplish what it did last time -- the slowdown will continue in spite of it and any goosing that the stock market gets from it. the best that will happen is that it buys the financial sector two more quarters before the must admit serious trouble as in non-performing loans ...