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To: Oblomov who wrote (47130)	12/13/2000 1:37:11 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Not sure. I don't think predictions based on specific times are worth much. I haven't really thought about exact percentages, only that I think it may get worse than people expect. I don't see anything over 10% next year. Maybe 6-7% tops, although this isn't exactly my area of expertise. Given that it seems just about every single company is warning, it may be rapid. My gut tells me some recent moves by my own company over the last few weeks is indirectly saying they need to unload some people. Typically, doesn't the unemployment rate lag though? Seems to me companies would hold on to employees if it got a little bumpy and try to ride it out, and would be late to lay people off. I know a few guys working construction and they've been told when the current projects are done, it looks real ugly going forward, like a year out. So it may take a while to get the unemployment percentage moving up. BWTFDIK?