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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (86791)	12/13/2000 3:10:20 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Now that is a very real possibility. What do you think the half-life will be this time. Surely not as good as last time, eh?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (86791)	12/13/2000 3:13:09 PM
From: HandsOn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Check news out from VASO Today.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (86791)	12/13/2000 3:43:40 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, Any view on USG? Lookin cheap. Wayne

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (86791)	12/13/2000 4:43:27 PM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Greetings, Michael. In yesterday's Fleckenstein column, he noted a speech given by Doug Noland (www.prudentbear.com/credit.html) that I found quite interesting. I hope you are able to give it a read, because the arguments for a credit bubble seem quite valid. His "flood insurance" analogy is quite good and worth the reading in and of itself. At the heart of the message is that derivatives "create their own demand," that is, until things start going sour. In particular, the author notes that MBIA and Ambac Financial, the largest credit insurers, have a capital base of $2.7 B supporting $402 B in net insurance, for a ratio of 149:1. I know you are about to buy puts on FNM (would like to know what months you think are best for this), and it strikes me that Ambac might be a good candidate for puts, as well, if even half of what Noland is concerned about comes to be. Ambac split 3:2 today and is near its high in a year of substantial gains. Don't know if MBIA is a listed company. Couldn't find it in initial attempts. I certainly would like to know what you think of Noland's piece. I hope you are able to give this rather long tome a quick read. Your comments on the value Prudent Bear insights in general would also be appreciated. Thanks.