Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Trading the markets..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1855)	12/13/2000 4:31:48 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 4583

For those looking to the Fed to lower Rates next week Forget It....! The Feds will wait for the until the story gets better developed. IMO... the Feds will NOT lower interest rates Next Week. Stocks Today: The Bush Bust By Suzana Rockwell investorsalley.com At mid-day the Dow added 50.82 points to 10,818.20 - dropping off early triple digit gains, while the broader NASDAQ shed 50.80 points to 2,877.87 – failing to rally. The S&P 500 gave up 3.36 points and the long bond was trading at a 5.49 percent yield – with prices rising. I guess we wonder what the hell it will take to move the markets for more than a day or two. We have what most wanted – a Bush win, data that favors rate cuts and bottoming signals from the big names. Now we come down to retail sales and that is all telling. There has been so much turbulence in the markets over the past several months that many investors and traders alike have taken hard hits. Credit card debt has piled up, because even when people had the money to pay cash – most chose to charge up huge debts to stay liquid. Maybe – just maybe – people are running out of money. This will better be evidenced in coming months as we have a chance to compare new bankruptcy filings. The holiday shopping season is looking bleak and even with an increase in on line shopping, the spending per household is sure to decline. Money supply – on the personal level – is tight and few people have a way to get out from under. Election Watch The end results are in and there a few items worth mentioning. “Dubya” will accept Gore’s concession later this evening and will the start acting “presidential.” However, remember that Joe Lieberman will reclaim his Senate seat which will leave the Senate with a dead heat in the Republican – Democrat balance. The override vote will of course be Dick Cheney as Vice President. Assuming that every member will vote party line – a slim chance – bills will be difficult to pass and there will end up being a good deal of argument in the White House. The Supreme Court justices have also become split – rendering a 5 to 4 vote against Gore’s case. Several justices spoke out against the manor in which the case was heard – and the feeling is that there will be a large rift that will linger in the courts for years to come. The best lesson to learn here would have been to agree to what should have been done before any recounts started and adhere to the outcome. Data Watch Sales by the nation’s retailers fell by a surprising 0.4 percent in November, led by the biggest drop in auto sales in more than two years. November’s decline marked the weakest performance since retail sales dropped by 0.5 percent in April. Many analysts had expected sales to rise slightly. In September, sales were flat, according to revised figures. The government previously reported a 0.1 percent increase. The holiday shopping season, meanwhile, hasn’t given retailers a lot to cheer about. Mall traffic is down and sales are soft. Merchants also worry that the big snowstorm raking the Midwest will hurt sales. Lackluster sales in November dovetailed with a decline in consumer confidence, which fell to its lowest level in more than a year. Economists say they are virtually certain the Fed at its Tuesday meeting will change its policy statement away from a tilt toward raising interest rates to a neutral stance. That stance would assume the risks of inflation are no greater than the risks of the economy’s stall. Sales of new cars and trucks fell by 2.2 percent in November, the biggest decline since a 4.9 percent decrease in July 1998. In September, sales of autos decreased by 1.0 percent. Sales of all durable goods, items expected to last three or more years, went down by 1.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent decline. Excluding the decline in autos, retail sales rose by 0.2 percent, half the size of September’s 0.4 percent increase. Sales at hardware stores and building supply centers rose a slim 0.1 percent in November after a sizable 1.4 percent rise. At furniture stores, however, sales rose by a strong 1.5 percent last month, following a scant 0.1 percent gain the month before. And, sales at clothing stores rose by 0.8 percent, double the 0.4 percent increase reported in September. Department store sales grew by a modest 0.2 percent following a 0.4 percent gain. Gasoline stations saw sales rise by 0.3 percent, down from a 0.5 percent rise in September as prices at the pump moderated. The retail sales figures are ad Stocks to Watch Compaq Computer (CPQ) became the latest high-tech company to warn that slow sales will cause fourth quarter revenue and earnings to fall short of market expectations. CPQ said revenue is expected to be between $11.2 billion and $11.4 billion, as much as 10 percent below expectations, though still 7 percent above year-ago levels. Earnings, excluding one-time charges, are expected to be between 28 cents and 30 cents per share. The consensus estimate of analysts surveyed was 36 cents per share. Compaq will report actual figures January 23. CPQ lost 1 7/8 to 18 7/8 – unable to buck the trend in the PC market. Whirlpool (WHR) lost 4 3/16 to 40 after the company said that its fourth quarter sales would be slower than expected because of a decline in the appliance market, and that it would restructure its business and cut jobs in 2001, incurring charges of between $300 million and $350 million. WHR said its restructuring plans would yield annual savings of between $225-$250 million. The plan includes a “significant reduction in personnel globally,” the company said. A company spokesman said that the reduction could include as much as a 10 percent reduction in its work force. Enron (ENE) gave up 5/16 to 76 7/8 after a concern had surfaced regarding Chairman, Ken Lay’s, departure. It was rumored that he would be offered a position in the Bush cabinet – but Lay was quick to hit the airwaves and dispel the notion. Lay has been a driving force behind ENE’s success and has been insightful to shareholders’ delight. Yahoo (YHOO) added 3/8 to 36 3/16 after the Internet portal giant said its Webcast Studio improves its Internet broadcasting services by streamlining the process to produce and deliver Webcasts over the Internet or corporate intranets. Yahoo also said it can deliver a custom Webcast that includes: an embedded video window and browser; automatic detection of the user's media player and automatic detection of the user's optimal bandwidth. While YHOO has suffered many a downgrade due to declining advertising revenues – the company is looking to beat the game by staying on top of other revenue producing opportunities. Looking back over the past few years, it has become apparent that Ebay (EBAY) has developed and maintained possibly the very best business model to ever grace the internet. If you look at the revenue stream – it comes directly from the users and even in the worst of economic times people are looking to sell some personal items. In the better financial times – people are looking to buy themselves treats. EBAY – up ½ to 41 ½ - will end up surviving when the rest crumble. The markets are actually looking uncertain – with no great run or sell off. Today may be the last opportunity to buy in before the great Fed announcement. Until later today, may the profits be yours.