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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (22449)	12/13/2000 11:37:52 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: This is not a miss that happens in month. Especially, since that that miss came one month AFTER the quarter began. Assuming an evenly divided Q4 The holiday selling season is a pretty small window, with most sales happening in the weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas. And by all accounts, sales pretty much fell off a cliff relative to expectations. Stores and online vendors expected a huge increase in sales at the end of November, and that increase didn't happen. Until a week or so into December, exactly what was happening must have been a bit of a mystery to everyone. Maybe there was been a change in the way retail PCs are viewed from last year to this year. Last year the summer was good, but holiday sales were better. This year the spring and summer exceeded expectations, but the holiday season has been a disappointment. It may be that PCs are now considered more a necessity, primarily for school, and less of a luxury treat. Long term that may be mean more consistent demand, since necessities are cut back less than necessities in downturns, but it means that we saw many of what would have been holiday sales this spring and summer. Considering that AMD is largely in retail PC's at this point, and that they are still going to make substantial profits this quarter, it's hard to see how they can go anywhere but up in profits and sales. AMD will be moving into the corporate, and server markets gradually over the next 2 quarters, so they won't be this exposed in the future. And we can probably look forward to steadily better back to school selling seasons. That AMD is going to make a solid profit this quarter under these conditions is a surprise. Meanwhile, the SiS integrated graphics boards are starting to trickle into the market, VIA's integrated solution will be here next month, and ALi's mobile chipset is sampling. So the infrastructure support we so badly need is a lot closer. Intel, with all its resources, couldn't get the Rambus platform to become a success in the marketplace. That (relatively) little AMD seems to be moving the entire industry to a DDR platform, even if things are running disappointingly late, is still quite an achievement. The Fed's tightening coincided with the most bizarre presidential election in history and accelerated a change in PC buying habits that crushed Q4 sales - nobody saw that one coming, so I find it hard to blame management at AMD or Intel for being surprised. Regards, Dan

To: Charles R who wrote (22449)	12/13/2000 11:41:51 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

This Jerry we are talking about - the list can go on and on. Jerry's strength is dogged determination and not investor friendliness True but without dogged determination would there have been Dresden producing high speed CPUs? Would there have even been an Athlon? I wonder how determined Ruiz is. Tim

To: Charles R who wrote (22449)	12/14/2000 12:45:45 AM
From: jjayxxxx	Respond to of 275872

RE: By the way, guidance miss is not the sin. Especially this quarter when almost everyone in the PC space seems to have missed. The problem is how these things get handled. Jerry tries to brush problems under the rug and act as if they don't exist. In other words, if EVERYONE ELSE hadn't reported first, we probably wouldn't have heard from AMD as soon as we did... There's a sobering thought. JJ

To: Charles R who wrote (22449)	12/14/2000 11:22:36 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Charles, <We are talking about a miss of something of the around 8% (high single digits was the guidance)...but I would give [Intel] management a much higher rating on being investor friendly. If you noticed, Intel declared their miss before AMD and that was only about a 4% miss (since 4% would have met their original guidance).> You've blinded yourself with your double standard here. AMD's minimum miss is 4% (2% actual growth vs. "high single digits"=6% prediction) and maximum miss is 9% (0% actual growth vs. 9% predicted growth. Thats a slippage of between 4 and 9 % in 31 days. So the size of the AMD "miss" is 6.5% in the center. I am interpreting AMD's flat to nominally higher revenues as 0 to 2%. Lets compare what Intel actually said to your Pollyanna interpretation: SANTA CLARA, Calif., Dec. 7, 2000 -- Intel's fourth quarter revenue is anticipated to be below the company's previous expectation, primarily due to a slowing worldwide economy impacting PC demand, the company said today. As a result of recent large cancellations by customers worldwide, the company now expects revenue for the fourth quarter to be flat, plus or minus a couple of percentage points, with third quarter revenue of $8.7 billion. This is lower than the previous expectation that fourth quarter revenue would be up 4 to 8 percent from third quarter revenue. From 4-8% to +- 2% is a minimum miss of 2% and a maximum miss of 10%. The average miss would be 6%. The size of the miss is barely any different from AMD's, but CRAIG BARRET REAFFIRMED INTEL'S GUIDANCE IN A EUROPEAN INTERVIEW 3 DAYS BEFORE THE WARNING. In actuality, Intel warned *27 DAYS LATER* than AMD and, worst case, their miss is bigger than AMD's. So please show me the reaction you got on the Intel thread when you called Barrett "not trustworthy." EDIT - and BTW, AMD never reaffirmed the CPU count in November. In fact, most of the conference call was about flash. Petz