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Pastimes : G&K Investing for Curmudgeons -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (9500)	12/14/2000 6:29:24 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 22706

what am i missing? the economy is not failing...unemployment is 4% and there are plenty of jobs for those 4%. for years we had 6-8% unemployment and the economy did very well.. for all the talk on cnbc about bonds...my recently purchased bond fund is up 20% in a week. that is a clear indication to me that interest rates are going down. greenspan gave a great speech last week...just about guaranteeing a neutral bias and interest rate cuts. the government cash surpluses are forecast to increase. that means the govt will not be competing for as many loans, further reducing pressure on interest rates. fund managers have too much cash on hand...it has to be put to work....the annual feeding of IRAs and 401Ks is about to begin, putting even more cash into fund manager hands. tax selling season is about to close. the election is finally over and George W has promised tax cuts. that will add more fuel to the economy. oil prices have firmed. around the country, gas prices at the pump have dropped dramatically in the past few weeks. that indicates an increase in oil supplies which should mean a per barrel price reduction. i see a few remaining pressures. we are in earnings warning season and fundies will wait until they are certain us little guys have done our tax selling. on the other hand, most of the companies likely to warn are already beat down...INTC warned last week and the stock has been going up. a very bullish signal that a bottom was reached. the very low unemployment rate looks a bit problematic from an inflation point of view. do corporations competing for employees bid up wages? so far wage creep has been kept in check and per employee production has increased. i believe the mechanics are in place for a nasdaq rebound. i see a massive nasdaq rebound if we get the following: favorable CPI numbers. flat or increasing unemployment. minimal wage increases. any increase in oil supplies and/or per barrel price reductions.