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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (47667)	12/14/2000 1:08:30 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

From the Richebacher newsletter: A friend of ours now living in London told us some time ago of an astounding conversation he had in the early 1970s. At a lunch with Mr. Greenspan (when he ran his own economic advisory service), they discussed gold and the Kondratieff Cycles. Mr. Greenspan stated that he would love to be head of the Fed when the Kondratieff Cycle was due to end in the late 1980s. He was quite sure he could overcome the deflationary impact of the cycle by injecting sufficient credit into the system to offset inflation. He ended the conversation by saying that should he fail to achieve his objective, there was a chance that when the cycle did end, the resulting Depression would be by far the biggest the world has ever known.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (47667)	12/14/2000 1:15:25 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

My suspicion is that at the next week's FOMC we will probably get a bias change to neutral (Greenspan is not in the business of disappointing). The change of bias will lead to speculators expecting about two rate cuts in the following meetings, and that expectation will lead to a rally of a significant size in January. Then we start worrying about first quarter earnings and the reality may come and bite because even if the rate cuts come in first Q, the effects will take a while to show in 2002. At that point there may not be many things that would help a sustainable rally. But this is all idle speculation and we know how much that is worth.