To: Richard Saunders who wrote (7839 ) 1/12/2001 9:23:40 PM From: CIMA Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24933 OPEC is to enact a production cut of at least 1.5 million barrels per day at its Jan. 17 summit. The combination of global demand dynamics and internal OPEC politics will lead to a cut in production and a subsequent increase in prices - over the short term. Changes afoot in the supply side of the equation, however, will change producer dynamics, both among OPEC members and among other producers. This combined with an increasingly sluggish global economy indicates that producer competition over the next year will depress oil prices after an initial short-term price spike. Analysis OPEC's power relies on control of oil production. As long as OPEC members adhere to internal agreements on production and its market share remains relatively stable, OPEC will succeed in manipulating prices. This has been the case since OPEC began its last round of production cuts in March 1999. OPEC cut petroleum production in response to the surplus that followed the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998. Lack of demand deprived oil-producing states and oil firms of capital for the development of new fields, transport pipelines and tankers. This created a state of suspension in the oil market, preserving the balance of power among producers within and outside OPEC. The new environment was simultaneously cash poor but opportunity rich. Expensive long-term projects in the Caspian, Southeast Asia and deepwater Africa were either scaled back or put on hold. The effect was a slow but steady rise in prices throughout 1999 and 2000, despite repeated OPEC production increases in 2000. The trend continued until two new elements - President Bill Clinton's decision to dump 30 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on the market and sharply slower American and Japanese economic growth - forced prices down during the tail end of last year. Since the United States has refrained from further releases and the producer situation has remained stable, OPEC pre-eminence has prevailed. OPEC ministers will meet Jan. 17 against this backdrop. *********** TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE CLICK HERE *********** stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Stratfor.com introduces new, expanded analysis for readers seeking more insight on the entire range of global affairs. Our new site features more intelligence on more subjects, easier navigation and expanded coverage. What New Members Say About Stratfor.com: "I was happy to pay the new subscription charge for continued access to your material given the high quality...In fact, I've quoted you several times in a report recently published by (my consulting firm)." D.A. "I teach geography and international relations at the college level. Your site is one of the most excellent resources for students and teachers alike. My compliments on the site." J.B. "I subscribe to numerous publications including the Economist, the National Interest and Foreign Affairs, and yet not one provides cogent analysis of today's events as well as you do." M.U. stratfor.com <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> =================================================================== SIGN-UP: Get the free, daily Global Intelligence Update: stratfor.com You can stop receiving the GIU by clicking on: stratfor.com CONTACTS AND CUSTOMER SERVICES: STRATFOR.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com ADVERTISE For information on advertising in the GIU or any section of the Stratfor.com website, please email us at advertising@stratfor.com ==================================================== (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc.