The Next President And the Lure of Foreign Policy
by George Friedman
Instead of experiencing a honeymoon period in Washington after
taking office, George W. Bush can expect his every move analyzed,
scrutinized and criticized. The president-elect's best hope of
quickly seizing a mantle of legitimacy is to take decisive action.
Because he is hamstrung at home - by a divided Congress and a
divided electorate - he is likely to pursue decisive policy abroad.
The complex relationships between the United States and other great
powers - like China, Russia, Europe and Japan - are not likely to
yield quick successes. Trips to London, Moscow or Beijing might
yield photo opportunities but not a breakout to dominate the world
stage.
While a crisis of truly global proportions is unlikely soon, a
survey of the world suggests there will be lesser crises and
quagmires that beckon American intervention. The lesser, tertiary
powers in the world are capable of posing disputes with the United
States. Regional players - in particular Iraq, Yugoslavia, Colombia
and the situation in Israel and the territories - offer immediate
challenges that a Bush administration may wish to take up.
Remember, the Bush foreign policy team will be composed of foreign
crises veterans who have seen action everywhere from Panama to the
Persian Gulf.
In the Middle East, Iraq's Saddam Hussein is experiencing deja vu
all over again. Saddam retained his presidency while President
Bush, the father, lost his. Now, the son has gained the White
House, and other familiar names from the Persian Gulf War - retired
Gen. Colin Powell, Vice President-elect Dick Cheney - are back in
control of government amid the lingering charge that they ended the
war against Saddam too early.
But, more tellingly, view the problem from Baghdad's perspective.
The Iraqi president has a score to settle. The American-led embargo
against the Baghdad government has effectively crumbled. The no-fly
zones are in tatters because Iraqi civilian flights have resumed.
And, according to Iraqi reports, Saddam is moving troops around
inside Iraq, apparently preparing to challenge U.S. influence over
the Kurdish region of the north and in the south, toward Basra.
Another area that could boil over is Kosovo. The ethnic Albanian
leadership has enjoyed a relationship with the Clinton
administration. Bush's election deals a serious blow to Kosovar
Albanian dreams of a Greater Albania. During the presidential
debates, Bush made his intention clear that the United States
should not maintain a long-term military presence in the former
Yugoslavia and that the Europeans should take primary
responsibility.
In addition, the ethnic Albanian leadership must be aware that
Europeans do not want to see Kosovo formally separated from Serbia
- a move that could kick off a destabilizing round of European
border redefinitions. Albanians might feel the need to act quickly
before their window closes altogether.
In Belgrade, the Serbian government under Vojislav Kostunica now
consists of a violently anti-American faction and a non-violent
nationalist faction. Violence against Serb police forces by
Albanian guerillas along the border between Kovoso and Serbia has
increased since October. With his welcoming reception into the
international community, Kostunica might see this as prime
opportunity to reassert Serb interests in Kosovo.
Both sides could use a bit of a crisis to their advantage. This
could be too tempting for the new administration in Washington,
too. As much as Bush wants to leave Yugoslavia behind, it is a
lingering trouble spot - representing a tremendous opportunity for
him to be presidential.
Latin America offers a candidate: Colombia. While no one wants a
war in Colombia, the hard truth is the United States is already
engaged in the conflict. Clinton's legacy poses serious problems
for Bush. In addition to increasing U.S. involvement in the
tumultuous country, the Clinton administration on Nov. 28 issued a
report stating the leftist guerillas have become, in effect, the
new drug cartel. A Colombian crisis opens opportunities for
decisive action close to home, albeit difficult and dangerous ones.
Israel's crisis will probably loom large in the initial Bush
administration foreign policy assessment. While the turbulence will
ebb until the special Israeli elections, the violence is likely to
resume full steam shortly thereafter, right around Jan. 20, 2001.
As Clinton learned in the aftermath of the catastrophic Camp David
talks, Israeli-Palestinian relations are a tar baby.
The one great temptation is the discussion of a peacekeeping force
on the West Bank, an idea supported by Palestinians who see it as a
wedge that could bring them de facto independence. There are rumors
of U.S. forces preparing for the role. Israel is absolutely opposed
to such a force. However, the Israeli government cannot afford a
rupture with the United States. Bush could attempt to force the
Israelis to accept U.S. peacekeeping forces. This would not be a
great idea - in fact it is a terrible idea - but it would be a
decisive act.
Intervening in most of these places would go against the grain of
the Bush administration. During the campaign, Bush enunciated a
foreign policy much more cautious than Clinton-Gore policy. His
foreign policy advisors, including Powell, his choice for secretary
of state, have historically opposed U.S. military intervention
unless American vital national security interests are at stake and
it is truly the last option.
But the Bush administration's early period is likely to find the
prospect for low-grade international crises mounting. And American
activism might intensify - for reasons having as much to do with
politics as grand strategy.
___________________________________________________________________
Dr. George Friedman is the chairman and founder of Stratfor.com. He
is a best-selling author and expert on international affairs and
security issues. More of his analysis and commentary is available
in our new section, WorldView, available to members of
Stratfor.com.
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