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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vampire who wrote (15092)	12/14/2000 5:18:35 PM
From: Bipin Prasad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

You have to know more about Upin to understand what we are talking about. Do you ?

To: vampire who wrote (15092)	12/15/2000 5:12:05 AM
From: lml	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Metsin6: Upin First of all, Upin is tearing up ORCL because he his on record as saying that ORCL wouldn't meat its numbers this Q, particularly with respect to its application software business. He was so convinced that he was right that he predicted as others here have, at one time or another, that the stock was going down to the $15 level. The bottom line to all of this is that Upin is trying to make a name for himself in this highly competitive market where analysts are now becoming a dime a dozen, and those that cannot command some following in the marketplace and lure money to the firm, and thereby indirectly, investment banking business, are doomed to fall by the waste side. Upin is determined to make a name for himself, for better or worse, and so far it looks like the latter. As the result of his call a couple months ago, you can be sure a lot of his firm's clients either sold out of ORCL, and/or took short positions on the stock. Regardless of the kaka you read on this board tonight from those obviously bearish on ORCL, the most likely scenario is that Upin's credibility in the marketplace, and among his firm's clients is somewhat diminished by ORCL's performance over the past Q as announced after yesterday's close. Expect some of his firm's clients' money start to trickle back into ORCL over the next few weeks, not all of it, but some. And expect those moneyed clients to place Upin's name on "credit watch" where it deserves to be. With respect to his CNBC interview, it is obvious to me that Upin was there to declare himself super-analyst had ORCL failed or merely met its numbers. Instead, Upin was shut down big time, and you could see it in his BODY LANGUAGE, by ORCL's performance in apps. He was at a loss, and made a valiant attempt to looks his best, and put his best foot forward by stating to the effect "No, no, wait, I can still be correct. ORCL has a tougher climb still ahead of it." But the fact of the matter is that ORCL has surpassed his expectations. He was too proud, and too dogmatic to admit it he was wrong. The traction of ORCL's apps are there much sooner than he thought, and as a result it is indisputable that ORCL WILL BE a player in the app market with which to be reckoned. Siebel While I was in SFO this weekend I caught Maria's CNBC interview with Tom Siebel. One thing I noted, which I shared with my wife, was Tom's BODY LANGUAGE. If anybody watched the interview, in response to practically every question, particularly the one's about ORCL, Tom did not look Maria in the eye, but instead looked DOWN into his chest. My read was that he wuz' scared -- and he should be. This is a game of leverage. The sooner you can grab market share in a fledgling market, the more leverage you will have going forward. Sure, SEBL is the leader in CRM, but ORCL is on its tail, and is catching up, and will eventually catch up, and Siebel now knows this. Upin Reprise The numbers don't lie. In closing, IMHO, the numbers this Q are more telling than the numbers in Q3 and Q4 despite whatever BS comes out of Upin's mouth. Why? Because this game is about momentum, and ORCL has proven that it can penetrate this market more effectively than the naysayers thought it could, and therefore it can grow its market share sooner and larger going forward. Upin is certainly entitled to his viewpoint. And accordingly he is certainly entitled to be WRONG. JMO.