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To: fedhead who wrote (47851)	12/14/2000 6:33:32 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i was contemplating 2000 as well, as that was the '98 pre Russia BK high. it would also meet up with the lower boundary of the broadest down trend channel at that point. interestingly, all the NAZ has done so far, is wipe out its blow-off stage...both it and the Dow are now roughly where they were in late April '99. any further declines from here should be triple tsunamis, as the divergence gap has finally been closed. what worries me a bit is the thought that the Nikkei actually erased TWO years worth of advances when it collapsed...it found its first firm support at the '87 BK LOW, which would equate to the '98 low in the NAZ if it further adheres to the pattern. note, while the percentage decline already equals that of the Nikkei at the second stage wipe-out low, the blow-off stage of the NAZ was larger, by about 25%. in terms of p/e blowoff it was larger by an even bigger percentage, so it could be that the second stage crash low will tend to be at the end of an equally exaggerated move. it all depends now if the rest of the market indeed joins in...if one looks at the SPX, that sure seems to be the case...also, the economically sensitive transportation average has begun to turn down again with a vengeance. as unlikely as that sounds, in terms of the total market, we may still have quite a ways to go. i tend to think that the total capitalization Wilshire 5K may be right in the middle of a wave 3 down.