To: Eric L who wrote (8553 ) 12/14/2000 9:27:04 PM From: Eric L Respond to of 34857 >> 3G Phones Hard To Sell In Tough Market Doug Nairne December 12, 2000 Telecoms South China Morning Post After sinking billions of dollars into the design and licensing of third-generation (3G) handsets, mobile companies may become victims of their own success. According to analysts with PricewaterhouseCoopers' technology, info-comms and entertainment practice, when the first of the advanced phones become available next year, they will face a saturated market. "There is going to have to be some innovative thinking to get people to replace their phones right away," David Hoffman, a Taiwan-based partner with the consulting firm, said. "You have to wonder how many people who are buying phones now are going to want to get a new one only a few months later." Mr Hoffman said North Americans tended to replace mobile phones only every two years. Even in Hong Kong and the mainland, where the drive to have the latest and trendiest technology is stronger, people hold on to a phone for a year. "We are looking at a two-year lag before the phones now in use are replaced," Mr Hoffman said. Nearly five million of Hong Kong's 6.7 million residents already are using some sort of wireless device, and other Asian countries where phone companies are hoping 3G phones will take off have similar penetration rates. But with massive amounts of money already invested in the new products, the pressure will be on both manufacturers and service providers to get people using the new handsets quickly. Mr Hoffman said consumers could be the big winners, as the need to get phones in use drove down prices. "They may have to start talking about subsidies, even though that is a forbidden word in the industry," he said. The 3G phones are being billed as the next great leap forward in wireless technology. Their developers say the handsets will allow universal mobile telecommunications services where customers can surf the Internet, watch live Web-casts, and hold video conversations, as well as use voice and text-message services. Unlike existing WAP (wireless application protocol) phones, 3G is supposed to be fast and will have a more user-friendly display. All major manufacturers plan to unveil new handsets in the coming months as stepping stones to 3G. Some are referred to as 2.5G phones, and are not quite up to the level 3G promises. Craig Peddie, general manager of Motorola's Lexicus division, said his firm would start with handsets that interacted with Web-based instant-messaging services. << - Eric -