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To: Venkie who wrote (47956)12/14/2000 9:54:19 PM
From: UnBelievable  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
I Know What You Say Is True.

Your response to rrman seemed out of character.

It really does get ugly out there, and while we all try not to let it get to us, from personal experience I know it does.

You must admit there probably is something wrong when many dogs are more loving and honest than many people. <gg>



To: Venkie who wrote (47956)12/15/2000 1:25:06 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Venk -

if you really are having trouble getting your strategies to work now, and you really are interested in not losing your capital, you need to take a step back. Realize a few things, including:

Buying the dip is a great strategy in a bull market. You are no longer in a bull market.

Buying the most aggressive, imagination-oriented, forward-promise stocks is the way to make the most money in a bull market. Holding same in a bear market is disaster.

Selling the bounces is a great strategy in a bear market. You are in a bear market. If history is any guide, it will be a very bad market. We have just exited a period of extreme optimism, and the worst bears in history have occured as the market adjusts from extremes of optimism back to reality.

There is huge feedback from the financial markets into the real economy. Far larger than Greenspan would like to admit. That feedback means that merely adjusting from optimism to realism will result in a strong economic undertow, which will likely cause us to swing straight from optimism to extreme pessimism.

If you're having a tought time, sit it out for a while. Read some. I may get dirty remarks from others on this thread, but I found William Oneill's "How to Make Money in Stocks" to be quite useful. While he emphasizes a momentum style, he makes it very clear that practicing these strategies in a bear market will cause ruin. His #1 rule is to determine the market environment. In a bear, he just doesn't play.

Read an old Marty Zweig book. He used to be an excellent trader before he sold out and ditched his principles. The monetary environment and market momentum make up 80% of success or failure; if you're still trying to buy BRCM, you're ignoring a terribly unfavorable monetary backdrop in addition to fighting the downward momentum.

And - I tell this to everyone - take out a chart of the Nikkei's bubble and collapse. Get really familiar with it. It's not a certainty, but at least allow the possibility that it *could* happen here. Think how you might adapt your strategies if that scenario unfolds.

Good luck, man. The more people learn to behave reasonably, the smoother our economy will function. If everyone realized what the slim minority on this thread realized, we could have avoided the severe recession that we are entering.

BC

[EDIT: and do me a favor - don't post "trading ideas" (touts) here unless you post support - some rationale - for the idea. That'll help reduce the animosity factor when you show up here.]