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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (81768)	12/15/2000 9:59:58 AM
From: Meridian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, re:Coldest Winter in 20 years & alltime high Nat Gas Prices... Now; a trading 101 question class: Is that a buying, or a selling event ? ... I rest my case. If the market were 100% efficient, you'd be 100% right. But we have an inefficient market, especially with regard to areas that are less understood by the investing masses, such as energy. Following this logic, I suspect that less of the "givens" which you listed above are actually factured in to current stock prices. The old Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact works only if investors understand the particular market/stock. So much attention is given to Techs that this Maxim works in tech. But less so in oils/gas. And with mo-mo players looking more and more at Positive surprises and earnings momentum to dictate money flows, we should see higher stock prices (E&P's and services) in 2001, when two things happen. 1. Earnings really do come through 2. We don't find ourselves in a nasty global downturn Now the real question is, how much will diminished demand hurt oil and gas prices? Especially with little coming in the way of production. Lower demand, flat supply = less of a price correction than is factured in by the market. That's my bet. And $25 oil, $4.00 gas for 2001. These stocks don't reflect my estimates.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (81768)	12/16/2000 6:56:23 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 95453

Slider, "Trading 101". I believe that the really big money is waiting until March to buy energy stocks. The pros do not want something as whimsical as what the outside temperature is to dictate their investment performance. By March such data will start to take a back seat to the secular change in natgas fundamentals -- i.e., record low storage levels and only a 1.5% increase in projected gas production for '01 vs. '00. See below from Bridge: "US oil/gas producers aggressively aiming to raise output, group says New York--Dec. 15--U.S. independent producers are aggressively exploring for and producing natural gas to meet burgeoning demand, and U.S. output is expected to rise 1.5% in 2001 to 19.01 trillion cubic feet, the Independent Petroleum Association of America's Supply and Demand Committee said. Crude oil output was predicted to rise 0.7% to 5.88 million barrels per day." Unless it gets a lot warmer after you open your position, anyone who shorts energy stocks in Jan/Feb will get their head handed to them, IMO.