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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (86919)	12/15/2000 12:28:33 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, Great note. I agree totally about the contract guns for hire. I haven't studied the optical cos. recently, but they may be worth a look. I think nearly every tech stock that has held up in this carnage is a put candidate. <g>

To: Earlie who wrote (86919)	12/15/2000 5:08:08 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Thanks for being a lone voice unafraid to yell fire in an already burning theatre... Lets hope people are listening...

To: Earlie who wrote (86919)	12/16/2000 5:01:46 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, a very thoughtful post. it's disconcerting to see 5 debt downgrades by Moody's for every upgrade, and even the BoE (Bank of England) is sounding alarms about the massive debt in the telcom companies. John

To: Earlie who wrote (86919)	12/16/2000 5:01:46 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

FOMC Meetings 1983-present As of Feb 2000, the policy bias was replaced by the balance of risks statement Date Action Risk Dissents 2000 Nov 15 None Inflation NA Oct 03 None Inflation NA Aug 22 None Inflation Jun 28 None Inflation May 16 Tighten Inflation Mar 21 Tighten Inflation Feb 02 Tighten Inflation Prior to 2000, the Fed issued a policy "bias" Date Action Bias Dissents 1999 Dec 21 None Sym Nov 16 Tighten Sym Oct 5 None Tight Aug 24 Tighten Sym Jun 29/30 Tighten Sym McTeer: No Tighten May 18 None Tight Mar 30 None Sym Feb 2/3 None Sym 1998 Dec 22 None Sym Nov 17 Ease Sym Jordan: No Ease Sep 29 Ease Ease Aug 18 None Sym Jordan: Tighten Jun 30/Jul 1 None Tight Jordan: Tighten May 19 None Tight Jordan, Poole: Tighten Mar 31 None Tight Jordan: Tighten Feb 3/4 None Sym 1997 Dec 16 None Sym Broaddus: Tighten. Nov 12 None Tight Broaddus: Tighten. Sep 30 None Tight Aug 19 None Tight Jul 1/2 None Tight May 20 None Tight Broaddus: Tighten. Mar 25 Tighten Sym Feb 4/5 None Tight 1996 Dec 17 None Tight Nov 13 None Tight Sep 24 None Tight Stern: Tighten. Aug 20 None Tight Stern: Tighten. Jul 2/3 None Tight Stern: Tighten. May 21 None Sym Mar 26 None Sym Jan 31 Ease Sym 1995 Dec 19 Ease Sym Nov 15 None Sym Lindsey: Ease. Sep 26 None Sym Aug 22 None Sym Jul 5/6 Ease Ease Hoenig: No change. May 23 None Sym Mar 28 None Tight Jan 31/Feb 1 Tighten Sym 1994 Dec 20 None Tight LaWare: Tighten. Nov 15 Tighten Sym Sep 27 None Tight Aug 16 Tighten Sym Jul 5/6 None Tight Broaddus: Tighten. May 17 Tighten Sym Mar 22 Tighten Sym Broaddus, Jordan: Tighten more aggressively. Feb 3/4 Tighten Sym 1993 Dec21 None Sym Angell, Lindsey: Tighten. Nov 16 None Sym Sep 21 None Sym Aug 17 None Sym Jul 6/7 None Tight Angell: Tighten May 18 None Tight Angell: Tighten. Boehne: No bias. Mar 23 None Sym Angell, Lindsey: Tighten. Feb 2/3 None Sym 1992 Dec 21 None Sym Nov 17 None Ease Jordan: Ease. LaWare, Melzer: No bias. Oct 6 None Ease+ Jordan, Lindsey: Ease. LaWare, Melzer: No bias. Aug 18 None Ease LaWare, Melzer: No bias. Jun 30/Jul 1 None Ease LaWare, Melzer: No bias. May 19 None Sym Mar 31 None Ease Feb 4/5 None Ease 1991 Dec 17/18 None Ease+ LaWare: No bias. Note: Fed eased Dec 20. Nov 5 Ease Ease Angell, Kelley: No change. Oct 1 None Ease Aug 20 None Ease Jul 2/3 None Sym May 14 None Sym Mar 26 None Sym Feb 5/6 None Ease 1990 Dec 18 Ease Ease Nov 13 Ease Ease Angell, Boykin, Hoskins: No change, no bias. Oct 2 Ease* Ease Seger: Immediate easing. Aug 21 None Ease Jul 2/3 Ease* Ease May 15 None Sym Hoskins: Tighten. Mar 27 None Sym Hoskins: Tighten. Boykin: Tightening bias. Feb 6/7 None Sym Seger: Ease. 1989 Dec 18/19 Ease Sym Angell, Melzer: No change. Nov 14 None Ease Seger: Ease. Oct 3 None Ease Seger: Ease. Guffey: No bias. Aug 22 None Ease Guffey: No bias. Jul 5/6 Ease Sym Seger: Ease more aggressively. May 15 None Sym Melzer: Ease. Mar None Tight Seger: No bias. Feb None Tight Hoskins, Parry: Tighten 1988 Dec Tighten Tight Seger: No change. Nov None Tight Sep None Tight Aug None Tight Hoskins: Tighten. Jun Tighten Tight Angell, Seger, Kelley: No change. May Tighten* Tight Hoskins, Parry: Tighten immediately. Mar Tighten Sym Seger: No change. Feb None Sym 1987 Dec None Sym Nov None Sym Sep None Sym Aug^ None Tight ^Greenspan's first meeting. Jul None Sym May Tighten Tight Seger: No change. Mar None Tight Feb None Tight Melzer: Tighten. 1986 Dec None Sym Nov None Sym Sep None Tight Wallich: Tighten. Aug Ease Sym Melzer, Wallich: No change. Jul Ease Sym Melzer: No change. May None Sym Wallich: Tighten. Apr None Sym Feb None Sym Martin, Seger: Ease 1985 Dec Ease Ease Black: No change. Nov None Ease Seger: Ease. Oct None Sym Black: Tighten. Aug None Sym Black: Tighten. Seger: Ease. Jul None Tight Black: Tighten. Seger: Ease. May None Ease Black: Tighten. Mar None Sym Feb None Sym 1984 Dec Ease Ease Solomon: Ease more slowly. Gramley: No change. Nov Ease Ease Gramley: No change. Oct None Ease Martin, Rice, Seger: No change. Aug None Sym Wallich: Tighten. Jul 16/17 None Tight May None Sym Boykin: Tighten. Mar None Tight Gramley, Wallich: Tighten. Martin: No bias. Jan None Ease 1983 Dec None Tight Martin: No bias.

To: Earlie who wrote (86919)	12/16/2000 7:58:43 PM
From: FIFO_kid2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie great post! The 30 year treasury bond sure looks enticing in the near term. One comment to make however, there are quite a few stocks already trading below working capital per share and are still profitable or cash flow positive from operations. These occurrences rarely happen and do present great buying opportunities.

To: Earlie who wrote (86919)	12/17/2000 11:19:55 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie; There are some of us who said get out way back In FEB. & March. The market don't trade on "earnings" if it did it would never have went so high to start with. The market trades on "liquidity" & "credit" what you want to keep an eye on is. search.news.yahoo.com The repos add liquid, and back before 2000 span dumped liquid in the market with his left hand as his right hand increased rates. The liquid won out over the rate hikes until he stopped and then started taking the flood of dollars he put in , back out. The hand outs to the central banks via the repo thingy just dried up. Look at he above link and youll see he started back around Nov 15 and is slowly getting more aggressive in his adding of liquid this is something that don't seem to make the headlines. There is one other signal that I think you maybe missed finance.yahoo.com the first two are junk bond funds which have took the worst beating in years..but you see that cup at the end. They actually peaked in 98 and that's when a stealth bear market started when they failed to get back to their old high in 99 and then sold off anyone who knows anything about credit would have been alert to problems in the wind. ---------------------- The last one is high grade short term bonds. finance.yahoo.com it bottomed in MAY, and is now saying that a rate cut is in the wind. If both the junk bonds and short term bonds continue to go up from here earnings won't matter at all, and stocks will start to climb the wall of worry. The bond traders are better at what they do than stock traders also the total bond market is much larger than the stock market & it will always be a leading indicator. --------------- If they sell back off then we are in for more bad times if they don't shorts better be ready to cover. If repos get more aggressive then shorting is like fighting the FED .. AND BTW blow off tops are caused mostly by shorts who get squeezed out not by crazy buyers. After they knock off the shorts then the market falls until they can get em back in, it looks like they want as many shorts in right now as they can get, but let Spam do a few more 28 day repos biz.yahoo.com and then cut rates and he will have his bear trap set. Jim Jim