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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (81786)	12/15/2000 9:57:18 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FATE.... Sadly; for all true Oilpatch afficianado's here - we're seeing the greatest waste of opportunity & fundamentals in Oilpatch history here... the confluence of alltime high combined Oil & Gas prices & record earnings has arrived directly into one of the great evolving Bear Markets and Bubble collapses and that has totally capped 50% of the fundamentals & activity underlying this sector. Throw all the rules, valuations & usual assumptions out the door in this environment... Bad Luck, Fate... choose your own term. During the last few months - the play was Nat Gas the "commodity futures contract" - not the stocks. Hopefully a few Pigs will walk away here still "fat & healthy" & the majority here won't become HOGS - led to slaughter by staying too long at the still very enticing trough... just my .02 cents... I've got Cash & Gold/Silver stocks and I'm going Christmas shopping..."aint" gonna watch a single tic of the tape today (positioned so I don't have to)... not a pretty sight anyway... Someone wake me up when Cisco hits $35 (VBG) ~ Ciao~

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (81786)	12/15/2000 10:04:20 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider: You are probably right that the "boys" are holding gold down here. You imply that these guys can hold hold POG down for as long as they want to. If that is the case, why should they EVER let it get away from them. Your analysis leads to the conclusion that gold will only move when THEY are ready to let it go.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (81786)	12/20/2000 9:53:44 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: $30-35 CSCO within 6-8 months / how about 6-8 days; or another 6-8 hours ! ================================================ <<To: George S. Cole who wrote (81779) From: SliderOnTheBlack Friday, Dec 15, 2000 9:45 AM ET Reply #81786 of 82156 "......PS: Microsoft lowers guidance, lower analyst targets, SUNW downgraded with lower guidance, HP guidance & targets just lowered, CMGI downgraded, Intel got cut by ABN Amro... and more to come. Throw a dreary Xmas retail season onto that fire & the story is allready written... I think we see $30-35 Cisco within 6-8 mos - just watch. Patience & Cash are King; and he who has the Gold - makes the rules." >> ========================= A Friday post on short candidates: (got puts ?) ============== Friday, Dec 15, 2000 2:49 PM ET Reply # of 82156 < Shorting gas is a terrible idea. > hmmm; maybe for the next 30-60 days it is; but ultimately it is perhaps a "SINGLE BEST SHORT SELLING - IDEA" candidate imho. But; in the mean time; how about these bargain PE stocks ? Symbol - PE LEVEL JNPR - 443 AMCC - 284 BRCM - 223 PMCS - 213 SDLI - 189 ... welcome to bubblemania - part deux; the denial stage. More money will be made on the downside "shorting" Nat Gas futures & made much faster; than was made on the upside - just watch... tic toc' ================ How about FDRY ? - looks like FDRY owners blew right on thru the "denial stage" after hours - YOWSER ! Foundry is a significant, top tier networking/router player - down from $190-$200 at the bubble top, was $90 just 4,5 weeks ago - imploded to $16 after hours....cut in half over-night & this company is profitable, makes money and has earnings. I like FDRY the "company" - traded the "stock" during the May-June NAZ blow up earlier this year. It's market cap is now less than what competitors have paid for private market companies in acquisitions of late - and that's for companies without FDRY's profitability, sales force & market penetration... I may buy a partial initial entry into FDRY today; but I'll gap my averaging in to encompass some single digit FDRY as well before getting a final full position. Or I may wait - (lets see how the 1st 3 hours go)as we're due for a 300-400 point blow off day & maybe we get $9 FDR& ... (VBG) and today, could be that day.... The NAZ in general may not have bottomed; but some quality companies have come back down to at attracctive buy/ "initial entry" points on an average in basis. - I'll bite on FDRY...and I will probably buy some $30-$35 CSCO... but I will "average" in slowly... as a NAZ 1650-2000 bottom is not unrealistic and would NOT be a historically "cheap" valuation for the index - using mid 1990'd valuation multiples. I am not buying "full positions" in anything - as I think it's 50:50 we see sub 2000 Nasdq; but I'm willing to allocate a 20%ish ultimate portfolio position to quality tech names here & down to NAZ sub 2000. If the NAZ turns & runs and this was the bottom & I only get a few partial postions - no problem... I'll take what I get; as patience will continue to present opportunity in this market environment. ================= PS: Big Dog - no; I haven't shorted XTO ...."yet". Yes; the underlying fundamentals for Nat Gas are off the charts - extremelybullish...but that's a profit taking sell signal to me. 1. the pendulum overswings in both directions 2. "hot" money is also "temporary" money - and we're getting inflows of "hot money" - which is also "margin" money - and margin money "melts" on the downside... 3. sell the trumpets & buy the cannons; with California in a total crisis, with some Power Companies on the verge of bankruptcy, with Nat Gas at near alltime highs, with a very harsh winter and with Nat Gas & the "Crisis" now the subject Du Jour.... can there fundamentally be a better confluence of events for forming a "TOP" in the nearterm ? ... and what should we do at "TOPS" and/or a historic confluence of positive events ? 1. Sell into them - start taking profits all the way up & raise trailing stops, sell calls etc... - and if your're willing to make money in both directions: 2. Short into a "speculative" excess top - (not seen yet, but close imo) I'm waiting for that "speculative excess top" in the Nat Gas E&P's here... not there yet; but if we do go there; I'm short & a heavy put buyer... Maybe we need a total meltdown in California with an accompanying spike in Nat Gas Prices and a strong spike in the E&P stocks - a final upward crescendo. .. and if we don't see a heady top move; then I'll patiently wait for other opportunities. Oil & Gas prices are heading directly into two potential negative freight trains.... the first is the small train; the end of peak winter heating season demand in 90 days and the 2nd & vastly more important & larger "train"; is the quickly slowing US Economy - read demand. Let the "R" word - RECESSION become acknowledged & used and heard daily in the media & where do you think commodity prices will go ? The collapse of Oil in 1998 was due to the contraction in Asian demand - and it wasn't a large % change that created that collapse. I think Oilpatch investors are greatly underestimating what small changes in demand will do to commodity prices and once "momenteum" changes in the futures markets - that is the one place where the pendulum tends to "over-swing" and this was, is and will allways be a "cyclical" sector with suprises & over-reactions in both directions. I don't play the commodity futures markets; but I firmly belive that Nat Gas will suprise to the downside & considerably so - come April-August. Yes; it may take 9-15 mos to bring supply/demand back to historically balanced levels and then perhaps also back to historical market prices - of the low/mid $2's as well ? But, if the US economy is slowing as fast as it appears to be; do not think for a moment that as we near the Exit of Winter & it's crisis generating potential; that the commodities traders won't take their money & run for the profit taking exits. We're in mid Dec here. Come mid-late January (where I think a "speculative top" could/will form) - the clock starts ticking for the race to the exit from peak Winter Heating Season... as the later we get into Winter Heating season the less the E&P stocks will be proxy's for Natural Gas the commodity. I think it's very likely that if we see any 20%ish+ upside short-term "Crisis/Spike" in the E&P's sometime this Winter; that they'll be much lower come spring/summer and may have seen their cycle highs imo. I do like the Drillers & select Oil Service stocks long; the E&P's will soon be increasing their hedging (allready are)another top indicator; they will face higher dayrates for their drilling and will most likely also face a simultaneous decrease in the price received for both Oil & Nat Gas - everything going in the wrong direction... costs & expenses up - prices received down... as oppossed to the drillers who will see higher & higher dayrates and activity in the nearterm due to the Nat Gas demand alone.... the same for Oil service. The only question is to what degree will a negative overall stock market impact & cap the fundamental upside to the Oilpatch ? ... personally; for the OSX - I don't see much of a chance for "new highs" in the nearterm. That will give us opportunity to see how the market reacts & if it takes the OSX down with it, how the E&P's hold up to the exit from peak Winter Heating Demand season etc... I think we should see a nice re-entry opp into the OSX come Jan-March; but with much, much more broad market & economic information in which to make a much, much, much better risk vs. reward entry and for me.... here after a great 2 year run: It's ALL about risk vs reward... And I like the coming downside as much as the upside and I am determined to leverage the middle 60% of the sweetspot of the downward cycle move - just like I did in the upside to this cycle. I did very well in the two earlier legs to this cycle; in the OSX 45-90 move and then the 90 to 125 move... the market can take those final 15 points at the top and they can also have the "waffling" at resistance here between 115-125 as well. I'll added a strong Silver postion to my Golds; now 50% portfolio weighted in Gold & Silver/PM Stocks. Short 10%, about 5% far out OSX calls & 35% cash. Anyone else think the DOW is a ticking time bomb here ? - money fled to safety there and if the NAZ breeches 2000 the DOW collapses imo... I think DOW 8750ish & NAX 1850ish are "fair" value. I love Gold & Silver here.... the US Mint just ran out of physical Silver for their coinage program.... out of physical... tremendous opps in Sivler and Gold and the US Dollar "aint" going up on a rate cut and it "aint" going up as we see foreign repatriation from our collapsing NAZ either.... Gold wins either way and we do NOT need a broad market sentiment change for GOLD; never have, never will... it's a micro-market sector. We ONLY need a very small flight to safety & value and/or a credit market crisis which triggers what would then become a historic Mother of All Short Squeezes in the Derivative Markets... Gold/Silver, Cash & Patience... that & a good dog & a warm fire is all the Slideman be needing in these -20 Wind Chills with 4 Ft snowdrifts in my lil' Great Lakes crib (VBG)~.... the Lake if frozen the Pine Tree's snow capped & it's a Post Card Snowscape... The next catalyst for Gold is when the NAZ breeches 2000 and mutual fund redememptions create the selling crescendo final capitulation... we're now out of denial... FDRY and it's peer sector collapse are an indication of that. Capitulation & a Mass Redemption run on Mutual Funds is the next shoe to fall.... bank on it. Let there then be a collapse in Mortgage Backed Securities, another Credit Crisis etc and LTC-Deja Vu all over again here we come & Gold Runs like a scalded dog... One last rambling thought: *** Why the hell would GW Bush be SSSSSSSSSSSSSSsssssoooooooooo stupid as to cut rates here & rescue the markets into terrible economic fundamentals - literally placing a temporary band-aid on a bigger, longerterm unfolding correction in the economy ? The smartest thing he could do is get all this excess margin & speculation drained out of the market; let the layoffs & corporate cutbacks ensue... squeeze out the excess and form another US Business Cycle of getting Lean & Mean for about 18 mos.... then poise the economy for a nice slow upward turn into his final two years in office; setting up his re-election. He has nothing to gain here rescuing the markets... Plus; rate cuts have about a 6-8 month delay factor; as we're only now beginning to see the effects of the rate hikes and will only begin to see the effects of $35 Crude and $8 Nat Gas in the coming quarters... cutting here will not help the economy untill late summer/fall... there's still pain to come even if the Fed cuts. Also; on the note of the Fed rescuing the markets. Can you imagine the call for Fed Intervention if we had our Social Security Fund in the Market ? Think about it... do you know the transfer of social-political power that the Democratic Party would get if we do this ? Who depends allmost entirely on Social Security - the elderly & some socio-economic groups; both heavilly Democratic.... We could be seeing Jesse Jackson & Al Sharpton leading the crowds down Wall Street someday demanding that the next Greenspan rescue the people's Social Security & the Market... not a pretty political sight, or a welcome market reality imho...