To: hroark2000 who wrote (25262 ) 12/15/2000 10:40:16 AM From: im a survivor Respond to of 65232 Microsoft sees future with flash memory By Michael D. Cohen Redherring.com, December 15, 2000 Current comparison chart Quote & Chart for: SNDK SSTI FLSH A road map to the Internet of the future was unveiled earlier this year -- a map that will have a broad impact on the entire IT industry and points to the ultimate success or decline of numerous technology companies. But it is one that the market barely noticed. On June 22, during Bill Gates's new-strategy announcement for Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), the chairman unveiled Microsoft .Net, a far-reaching, paradigm-shifting platform for Internet services. Despite Microsoft's well-documented legal tussles and lagging stock price, its strategic maneuvers still have huge ripple effects and create excellent opportunities for investors. The goal for Microsoft .Net is to enable all users to synchronize applications and data with Internet appliances, most of which use flash memory. STOCKS LOOK ATTRACTIVE Given Microsoft's intent and the battering some flash-memory players' stocks have endured of late, one of the best buys right now is SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), with 40 percent of the flash-memory market. This company manufactures removable flash cards for digital cameras, audio devices like MP3 players, and digital camcorders. Growth in these markets has already been strong: SanDisk's third-quarter revenue was up 153 percent year-over-year, and it owns more than 100 patents, which it licenses to competitors. The company is also an equal partner with Toshiba in a venture called Flashvision, which, to meet growing demand, plans to transform a Virginia foundry into one capable of generating $1 billion in annual sales by 2002, when it's expected to reach full production. It's slated to begin operation in the second half of 2001. This ramp-up on the supply side, coupled with .Net on the demand side, makes SanDisk a timely value, especially considering that on December 14 its stock was trading at $54.06, 68 percent off its March high of $169.63. At that price, SanDisk is valued at 35 times 2001 earnings estimates, a reasonable multiple for a company expected to show 21 percent earnings growth in 2001. Another good flash-memory play is Silicon Storage Technology (Nasdaq: SSTI). Its chips are incorporated into set-top boxes, pagers, personal computers, routers, and a wide range of Internet appliances. According to company forecasts, its capacity will not meet demand until the end of 2001. Backlogs have been steadily increasing, and because its products are used in Internet appliances, the .Net effect will hit Silicon Storage strongly in 2002, likely causing the dislocation between demand and supply to continue. Despite this promising growth, Silicon Storage's recent stock price of $13.75 is 65 percent below its June high. The company also is trading at a downright cheap forward price/earnings ratio of 5.5.