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To: Tommaso who wrote (81815)	12/15/2000 12:23:55 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Next week's AGA number's will be the key. If we get a big draw with all the industry shutdowns and the producers leaving all the ethane, propane, and butane in the gas stream then we are looking at a severe NG problem. Personally I believe we will get a big draw, and we are looking at a true honest energy crisis, but want to see if AGA's confirm. Bears will have a hard time convincing anyone (knowledgeable) that there is no problem if AGA shows a "large" draw under these circumstances. In actuality my concern is that the problem will not be solveable with higher commodity prices. There simply won't be enough supply available to maintain line pressure unless some major consumers are shut down. What will happen if power plants are shut down? or maybe we shut down all the steel mills? And remember that if those fertilizer plants stay shutdown all winter there will be other major problems next year.

To: Tommaso who wrote (81815)	12/15/2000 12:37:22 PM
From: ezspkns	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

>At the end of the heating season there is usually a lot left over.< That's right, and someone must buy that gas and carry it on their books for 9 months or more at the risk of selling or using at a 'loss'. Are you buying $8 gas essentially or actually for the next heating season? Not such a big deal at the sub-$2 of the past. It is times like this that one would EXPECT storage to be drawn down to nothing based solely on price. I also agree with some of the bull arguments presented here, just being the fly in the ointment. Another on the bear side is how much profit is in some of these issues and if market conditions are such that profits will be taken where they can be had. EZ