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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (81817)	12/15/2000 12:43:47 PM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Jan 1, 2001 will be interesting. Based on weather forecasts we can expect 2 more weeks at least of strong demand in NG & Oil. Present weather forecasts for January of for below normal temp in much of the heating areas. Crude's performance over the last couple of weeks is hard to explain. Maybe when OPEC cuts production and a cold Winter is still wearing on our depleted inventories we will have a bottom. But I am focusing most on the OSX as the E&P's transfer their cash to the service companies. Sold of my MRL again and have a good deal of cash if we see OSX 90-95 again.

To: Tommaso who wrote (81817)	12/15/2000 2:00:43 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<To me, being a bear on natural gas right now is riskier than being a bull on Internet stocks was nine months ago. > ... Tomasso; in all due respect. I think you got the concept wrong. Being bullish on Nat Gas "stocks" right here with the coldest winter in 20 years and alltime highs in natrual gas - the commodity; is like being bullish on Internet Stocks at Nasdq 5000. Being short the "commodity" for the next 2; maybe 3 months may be a bit insane; but short April-August futures with decade high Nat Gas drilling/rig utilization underway ? - maybe a hell of a bet imho... Sell the euphoric, once in 20 year, alltime highs - you buy the once in 15 year lows... or, as Baron de Rothschild said: Sell the Trumpets, buy the cannons... right Bullsky (VBG)? This is this cycles profit taking - selling & exit "peak" for Nat Gas stocks on the horizon; it's when, not if. I can understand someone not selling XTO,NBL, BR, APC, APA here - most are still substantially off their former highs; allthough, XTO is near its high having bounced of late. There "should/could" be some upside if the "commodity" Nat Gas goes into another move up with sustained cold weather. But; it's when, not if - to take profits & exit these stocks before the mass exodus begins sometime before the end of Winter/ Dec to March. It's only a question as to if January, or February brings further cold weather pressure to Nat Gas - the commodity; or if we'd see a warm January, or Feb; whereby the commodity price would over-react to the downside. The other forgotten factor; is that especially in the shoulder season - even Nat Gas pureplay's retrace with moves in the Crude - commodity market. Even an onshore Nat Gas domestic pureplay like HSE; gets sold off during crude oil price contractions - right, or wrong fundamentally; they do. It's merely a very short term weather bet here; most Nat Gas stocks will not hit thier former highs of Aug-Sept; unless we see a Noreaster spike NG to another level and the "stocks" react to the commodity - if they do; it will be the "alltime" shorting opp and as I've said before; if you'd paid your dues in the Oilpatch on a full time basis; this sector - BEING CYCLICAL ! - owe's you as much profit on the downside trading/selling short - as it does on the upside going long. Everyone holding E&P's here is going to have to beat the Institutional holders out the door - sometime this Winter. To win this play; you have to bet right on weather & also beat the Institutions out the door during the next 3 mos. Shame, shame, shame & pity on the "Oilpatch" speciality invetor here; who will not buy puts, or short sell this sector... That is the essence of cyclicals - you make money in BOTH up & down markets - as you should if you follow it daily. The problem is that 95% of individual investors can not emotionally separate themselves from their stocks & view short selling, or buying puts as some sort of blasphemous act... My two dream trades in this entire market are both short: 1. a spike in the BTK back to 800+ 2. A really historic Blizzard & Arctic Temps blanketing the entire nation in late February/early March (the later in Winter - the better) - and have the Nat Gas E&P's stocks fly to new highs - a short selling; sitting duck - period. I am willing to go short Nat Gas pureplays with as much as 50% of my portfolio - should we see a speculative breakout in the next 2-3 mos - and I will make 35-50% within 45-90 days. - just a Sept '99 Deja Vu all over again trade. In fact; I'll buy puts & leverage the downside... These are cyclicals; not growth stocks people and Nat Gas is seeing a once in a generation convergence of positive events - that means you must beat the crowd to the exit & there's going to be a whole lotta cash made on the downside to that exit as well... when; not if. ... and I'm waiting for it.