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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (81821)	12/15/2000 1:35:28 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

John Q Public, RE: EDIT: After reading Roebear's post I feel the need for a clarification. There is no FUNDAMENTAL reason to sell now. There may well be logical TA reasons to sell. Thanks, that says it simply. The TA shows a possible window of market weakness through year end, that MAY effect the OSX. If it does, then there may be a buying op around New Years (for ex., a rally could be possibly driven by cold weather on top of the good fundamentals for NG). This would effect mostly short term traders. Longer term, I still hold the view that a possible extended bear market could take the steam out of the NG/energy stocks. Whether this will be the case should be evident by January and is something longer term traders should be aware of. Just my opinion based on the TA, and that is all I will say on the matter till January of next year. Best Regards, Roebear

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (81821)	12/15/2000 1:59:02 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 95453

John Q. An even more interesting and potentially profitable relationship to analyze is the one between nat. gas and oil prices and availability, and tech. prices. I think the only macro problems that Greenspan and the fed can't solve with the tools available to them are the energy problems. Money supply, credit problems, trade issues etc., are all manageable and the world markets are out there. I think there is a lot more money to be made with a correct analysis of the issues you raise through bets in the tech arena than in investment in the energy stocks themselves. If oil and gas supplies come on line and prices fall, then most of the solid tech stocks are far below the prices they will command in a few weeks or months. If not they are currently overpriced. I'm no expert but given the actions of the mrkt and the investments of the major oil companies, or lack thereof, my guess is that longer term increased supply at cheaper prices will come as a result of land drilling in the mideast. With the political unrest and the radical nature of many of those countries, we cannot count on that happening, so the shorter term may well rest on production from non-opec sources. If something happens so that the markets can see a resolution of the energy problems, tech should jump. If not, any interest rate changes or other actions of the fed will likely be counterproductive. Energy is the bottleneck. Will this result in tax incentives and other measures by the gov to encourage and subsidize production? It doesn't make sense that the lack of investment of a few dollars in the e&p field will have a hugely disproportianate effect on the world economy. What am I missing here? Ed