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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48)	12/16/2000 12:32:27 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 111

it is that the Fed did not keep up with the state of the Y2K remediation efforts. It is still my contention that the fed acted irresponsibly by adding liquidity through Dec 31, 1999 when the problems had been resolved long before. Was there really a way for anyone to know that Y2K would not be a problem until we actually got to Jan 1 2000? I've talked with COBOL Systems analysts at ENE and other big companies and they have talked about the Spagetti Programming that occurs in many legacy systems. It was nearly impossible to determine if all companies and agencies and governments were indeed ready. The way that many companies prepared for Y2K was to buy new hardware and software.... many upgrades. That created year over year comparable sales that could not be met this year. and companies like BMCS, CA, CPWR, etc that have been really hammered due to all the business in 1998 and 1999 and a dearth of sales this year. Also the FED had to consider not just the US but the global preparedness for Y2K, since the US economy is the 800 pound gorilla in the global economy. Obviously most Fortune 100 and 500 companies do business overseas, if not directly,then indirectly their products and services end up being utilized in other countries in addition to the US. Dec 31st 1999 is probably not the key date, as the FED seemed to keep the liquidity there until we got through the Feb 29th 2000 date, which due to the 400 year periodicity, of the leap year cycle could have been another software programming error. Is it a coincidence that the NASD peaked within a fortnight of Feb 29th. The top in Retail sales and other economic figures was put in in Feb and March. I think it was no more obvious that Y2K would not be a problem compared to realizing that the NASD was a bubble and it was as easy to short YHOO at 250, or 220 or 150, or 100... this past 9 months. same with the hundreds of .coms that are down 90 to 99%. Many who realized that the net stocks were overpriced were early and their shorting and short covering helped the stocks go up to even greater multiples. The real issue is there a way to come out of a historic stock market bubble and not have a multiyear stockmarket and economic downturn? History shows that it's very difficult. It has been a very interesting three years or so, and the next few will probably just as eventful :-) John

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48)	12/16/2000 12:44:05 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 111

If you get a chance pull up say 5 minute intraday bar or candlestick charts on FLEX and EXDS Flex on Friday went from 25 @ 1 PM up to 32 by around 2:30 and then just collapsed to 26 before recovering to 28 or so by the close. very erratic. and EXDS ran from 26 at 1 PM up to 34 by the close. Must have been options related..... there was over 3.7 million shares bought in the last 5 minutes. SUNW had a big reveral rally during the day but it was more orderly in my opinion. It was interesting the day we topped on Monday, My screen was a sea of green for the tech darlings except for JNPR, BRCD, ARBA, SDLI and JDSU, It was like the really cutting edge bellweather stocks were giving us an early indication that the smart money knew this market was topping out...... If you can pull up 5 minute charts that can go back up 6 or 8 days, check it out. Anyway it's interesting to see the selling in those names into the close on monday. John