Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (36705)	12/15/2000 8:14:34 PM
From: BDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<The majority of the folks on this thread seem to prefer figuring out how to make the most out of the hand they are playing than complaining about not having been dealt a royal flush,...>> -UF Great minds think alike.(g) "Life is like a game of cards. The hand that is dealt you represents determinism; the way you play it is free will." -Jawaharlal Nehru

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (36705)	12/15/2000 10:05:57 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Tired of short-sightedness. quote.fool.com This is what most gorillas, gorillas who are in the tornado, and come out of it dominant, do over a period of time. Notice all those little dips? Those little dips were not so little at the time they occurred. They scared the beejeezus out of many shareholders who gave up on the whole rigged "crap shoot" that is the stock market because of those dips. What really counts is (1) is the country and economy going to hell in a handbasket? Short-term, maybe, over the next 5 years, not on your life; (2) will the gorilla companies your following still be growing and dominating their markets over the next 5 years - if a true gorilla, yes. Put 1 & 2 together, and you can put these little dips into perspective. Quite frankly there has never been a better time to buy in over a year than now. Buying during the depths of the summer of 1999 dips I still think was a better place to buy. So get over it. Nothing goes straight up. But we have 100 years of history, history under much more adverse economic conditions, even the threat of nuclear holocaust that definiitively states the market will rise again! Practicing gorilla methodologies does not protect you from general market swings, but it does enormously aid you in locating those companies most likely to benefit enormously once the markets get back on track. Tinker P.S. Haven't been able to follow the MSFT discussion here closely. But from my re-skimming of the manual the last couple of nights, this warning by MSFT is very, very, serious for MSFT. I say this because MSFT has always managed their earnings; they have always had sufficient deferred monies that they could hold back or put forward as they needed to to meet earnings. The fact that MSFT will miss indicates that they have used up this supply, probably over the last several quarters. I have felt for awhile that MSFT was having enormous difficulty expanding into other growth markets. It seems that every move they make which does not involve leveraging the OS has been fraught with difficulties. From buying cable companies (in which MSFT loses out to Liberate despite spending billions for reserved slots), to moving into PDAs and the Internet business. Perhaps this .Net business will re-ignite the old MSFT glory, or perhaps the Windows 2000 launch will speed up down the road. But of the silverbacks, MSFT is looking the lumpiest IMHO.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (36705)	12/17/2000 5:25:07 PM
From: Doren	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Uncle Frank, That's why we have spent this year focusing on the positives of the GG method of stock picking rather than the negatives of politics,marco-economics, energy policies, and other issues out of our control. In the long term, great companies will outperform ordinary ones, regardless of the socio-economic back drop. If energy conservation/shortage is long term, maybe we should start looking for gorillas in energy tech sector, or is there such a thing? I'm kind of kidding...but... Some of Gilders energy babys... might be looking better right now. I've never taken him totally seriously but I've never discounted him either. Seriously though, we've tended to look at information based tech stocks. Of the 10 in the GKI, 9 are about transferring information over the net and one is the desk top OS that most people transfer the info to. Of the 25 in the GKI + watch and waitlist 21 are in that sector. Only ELON, ARMHY, SNDK and WIND have applications outside the internet metaphor, and all of these are definitely tied to the net. Might this have some effect on our combined investment strategy? Not at all if the market hits a bottom and rebounds. But surely if they can't address these problems we might be in for a long, slow slide. The question is how long? And if our energy problems are never addressed then perhaps we should think about expanding the gorilla search in other areas, such as conservation tech, or energy research. I think we tend to avoid biotech. I've avoided it because the FDA complicates things there. However maybe that's mostly a function tied to drug development. Maybe Genome tech will have more immunity to the FDA. I don't know maybe someone has some better ideas. At this point I still believe the slowdown is a temporary phenomena, due to disparate facts: Bus and Bandwidth have not kept up with chip speed, the US market for desktops is maturing, world consumption is just starting, energy conservation in the US has taken a long slide, etc. Theoretically commerce and work conducted over the net is vastly superior to commuting in terms of energy, but... I only have a small amount invested right now. I just changed my occupation recently so I don't have a lot to invest. I'm experimenting. I have QCOM, CREE, EMC, SNDK and AFCI. Four are on our lists and the other hasn't done so well although I think its a great company. So I'm fundamentally in agreement with gorilla principles, however our gorilla principles are just guidelines. I think our Gorillas work well in good periods. And I think they work well over very long term periods. But I think there may be periods as long as ten years when our Gorillas might not work so well. I don't know how many of you remember this period but take a look at this graph: quote.yahoo.com^DJI&d=my As you can see the period from the mid 60's to the early 80's the Dow did NOTHING. I still remember it and in my memory it hurt. I remember discovering gas at CircleK was 25¢ a gallon in 1967. People did pretty well with property and bonds during this period. Maybe there were Gorilla's that beat the market to a pulp, anyone know? The question is can we afford to ignore a recession or are there reasons to look for gorillas elsewhere? We've had a period of 18 years where our economy has kicked butt mainly because energy was low and information has become cheaper and cheaper. Are we looking in the right place? Embedded systems might just take on more importance now that energy is again king, or are there other technologies that will benefit from our new knowledges. Maybe if we see the new Celebrity in Chief's cabinet address some of the underlying issues people will cash in their bonds and take the cash and put it back in the market. If they ignore the issues maybe we should rethink our portfolio ratios.