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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (4079)	12/15/2000 10:22:27 PM
From: Michael Young	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

<<At the Montgomery conference, it was very clear that both jdsu and sdli felt that there was no bogey man in sight: either an increased capacity or demand bogey man. Management actually laughed about it when asked. >> They are component suppliers. So of course they will keep thinking that things are great - until the roof caves in. All of a sudden orders from customers will just dry up. Look at the history of the hard drive component manufacturers for a great example. MIKE

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (4079)	12/15/2000 10:45:40 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Tuesday is a very important day, imo. I think we are already in a recession. If the fed just goes to neutral, we are in for deep shit. If they ease, I will cover asap. << I covered today i'm not going to take a chance down here. Some stocks have yet to test there lows again; yes, maybe keep a short position on them for hedging. i'll hold onto the longs until otherwise. The less rapid trading one does here i think the better off one we'll be. the stock market declined was way too fast and steep. It starts with the Fed of course, then the stock market goes. When the stock market goes, so goes the economy. i senced concern the last time AG spoke at the beginning of Dec. If he hadn't of spoken in the way about the economy and inflation, the stock market could of been a lot lower by now. the explosive more up from the last low was an AG effect. The QQQ's could continue to churn here a bit and start to move up slow this time on higher lows building a better base so far it has for three weeks, each with a slightly higher low and high. The thing that concerns me most is the domino effects from Msft and other heavy weights that could spread into other stocks and markets. I don't know if most of the bad news is pirced in yet? I'll talk with you later this weekend i plan to do quite a bit study. Hmmm? Very quite here on this thread lately... Edit: Gene More on Optics fool.com