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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (86983)	12/16/2000 11:41:08 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

ild, First, I would have to ask what a commercial is in the S&P, Dow or any financial future? I know that Hershey's is a commercial in cocoa, and Archer Daniels is a commercial in grains, and my ex boss was a commercial in cattle trading, but who exactly is a commercial in financial futures? That being said, it reminds me of what one of my mentors, Lou Margolis, said in 1981: "We are trying to get everyone to try hedging. However, I fear that when we finally get everyone hedged, we will have the biggest bull market in history and our clients will be hedged out of it." He was very perceptive, except for the fact that he didn't get close to getting everyone hedged before the bull market started. With so many "commercials," whatever they are, short the market, so that they are at least hedging the downside if not betting actively on the downside, I would say a sharp, probably short rally is the most likely consequence. If the commercials are banks and brokers and specialists, so many don't go belly up in bear markets because they hedged successfully ahead of time. My guess is that they have to be scared out of their hedges before the real crash can "take holt", as we say in Texas.