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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2017)	12/16/2000 1:56:40 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 4583

Hi GZ, As we near the abyss - it is significant to notice that many similarities exist (for both the S&P and the NAZ) between current index price action and the time period of Oct 1998. Both indices have suffered price weakness which approaches the near past lows - however there exists a positive divergence between price (going down) and the moneystream and time segmented volume(firming up at higher levels vs the lower levels they attained when at the previous low price level). During both indices last lows - macd was decidedly negative on this last week's decline macd was decidedly positive. All of the these three positive divergences occurred in October of 1998.The price action of 1998 was more volatile and spiked viciously down.Last weeks action is less volatile and is not setting a new low - instead it is more a sideways action. It is my interpretation that institutional money is being reapplied at the same time many sell side brokerage houses are saying sell as they downgrade washed out stocks.Downgrading washedout stocks at the bottom has questionable intentions. One thing for sure there was a serious buy program that kicked in around 2:00 on friday.This is indicative of strong money placing their bets.The institutions are quietly taking bottom positions. As this float gets absorbed greed will soon compete for fewer stocks and then (with pre-announcements behind us) the psychology will shift. Some talking face will blame it on the fed and then I guess the January effect will take place. Does anyone really think the fed does anything but follow the interest rates as determined by the rate on treasuries. Rates are at nearly a 2 year low - prime is outrageously high and both the discount rate and fed rate haven't budged. 3 month treasury bill yields (5.9% AS OF 12/011)have dropped to below the discount rate (6.0%) This is the same kind of action that occurred back in October 1998. Read that to be a reliquification of money.It is cheaper to obtain money from the treasury than it is to go to the lender of last resort The Fed they are paying 6.0% and charging 6.5%. To me we are seeing the last of a great oversold bottom.It is suppose to look like we are jumping off into new low abyss. THE MAJOR CLUE I'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR ARE THE DIVERGENCES. THEY HAVE ARRIVED. I'm surprised it didn't happen with a volatile vix spike - but that was last time this is this time. It's not news - RATES HAVE ALREADY TURNED. futures.tradingcharts.com WHAT IS NEWS IS : SO TOO HAS THIS BOTTOM TURNED !!!! Remember where you heard it first. Bob