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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SGJ who wrote (25522)	12/16/2000 8:13:00 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 65232

Qman: Hmmmm,..... don't like to hear that nasty "s" word actually mentioned out loud? Shall we place a small wager as to whether the bottom is in yet or not? (g) The economy may not be "dead", but it sure as heck is wilting. PEs always get trimmed under these conditions. "If you've got something that people want, they can afford it". This statement doesn't make sense to me, given the fact that the U.S. economy currently lives and dies based on a continuation of manic consumer borrowing. If you really want to get tuned in to where we appear to be heading, check out the remarkable decline in consumer borrowing (which effectively provides the lion's share of the fuel for the U.S. economy) over the last few months. Playstation 2? How about the massive inventories that have been building up across the economy for the last several months (check out the percentage of the GDP growth that is actually inventory building, just for starters, then maybe peek at the auto sector, PCs, cell phones, etc.). With respect to B2B, I actually do a fair amount of homework in that territory and my view is diametrically opposed to yours. The growth curves are not very exciting and they also look remarkably like the e-retail scene of a year or so ago. Like those optical stocks? I just put out a short piece detailing why I think they are an excellent and ultra low risk sector to short. When optical networks put themselves up for sale (for obvious reasons) and there are no bidders, it sort of speaks to the reality of the glut that exists. And if the network boys think they've got too much bandwidth already (and that is exactly what they think), then what is likely to happen to the order backlogs of the equipment suppliers? Trust me, their PEs will take it in the neck over the next few weeks. JNPR and JDSU lead my "hit" list if you want some suggestions. If "there" is to be interpreted as "saturation" then this observer thinks we are indeed "there". (g) Best, Earlie