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To: Tommaso who wrote (81902)	12/16/2000 11:43:52 AM
From: Telemarker	Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, your conclusion is appearing more inescapable with each new weather forecast. Perhaps, if the remainder of the winter were to be warmer than last, we may get partially bailed out on the natgas situation, but this is appearing more unlikely each passing week. Outside of the spot and futures prices of natgas, the market is not pricing in much of this, IMO. We remain at anything but a bullish consensus for the industry. So, a grin comes to my face when reading and hearing the phrases of the non-believers and nay-sayers. As an old-line thinker who views it as the nature of markets to prove the greatest number of players wrong, I firmly believe that we energy investors need that pessimism - the more the better. I should again qualify my statements as being from someone who is more concerned with the fundamental outlook for the businesses I invest in than wether the share prices will go up or down in the near term. I've concluded that there is so very much dumb money out there that I'm not willing to put much faith in the "collective wisdom of the market" as I may once have. My feeling is that if one isn't prepared for some negative price volatility, they shouldn't be buying common stocks!! Happy to let the range traders and TA people talk their positions (and hopes?) and use their methods to reduce their risks. If there still are profits of consequence to be made in this sector, they will most likely go to the current believers/buyers/holders. Hopefully, we all appreciate the associated risks. Still sitting in my port during this market storm with my defensive (MLPs, RICs and REITS) and energy issues. Keeping my eyes on sentiment/news towards/about the energy situation. Starting to see more news exposure, a few more who are seeing the situation as you do, and even the word "conservation" mentioned a couple of times. Nothing indicative of a top at this point, IMVHO. My sincere wishes for a very happy, safe and fulfilling holiday season for all board readers and their families. Oh yes, and for lots of SNOW!! Best regards,

To: Tommaso who wrote (81902)	12/16/2000 11:58:32 AM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I suspect you are correct and we will see close to zero in storage by the end of the season. this could get very very ugly. For example storage in the NE is used because of transmission limitations from the sources in the GOM. This peak shaving cannot be replaced by more production availability in the GOM when demand is high and transmission is peaked. I imagine once the level gets low enough local utilities may have to curtail industries for extended periods just to ensure there is enough gas in storage to ride out the peak demands. When it is very very cold out in the NE residential / commercial building demand is very high. So I would expect once disaster is viewed on the horizon gas may be curtailed for extended periods and for those who can burn #2 oil they will be draining the system big time.

To: Tommaso who wrote (81902)	12/16/2000 3:06:11 PM
From: rajaggs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, I fear you are being too accurate and honest. The public is unaware of the size or momentum of the problem and the politicians are too scared to inform them. Doomsday fast approacheth. 'jaggs

To: Tommaso who wrote (81902)	12/16/2000 9:41:39 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, I agree with you on the likely running out of gas scenario for this winter. The questions are what happens, i.e. industrial curtailments, what is the inventory at which supply distruptions start due to lowered pipeline pressure, how high can spot prices go, what is the effect on E&P and OSX stock prices, what is the impact on an already severely weakened economy. Also, what are the effects of the high drilling & workover rig count on increasing supply, how much pent up demand is there in ammonia, methanol, aluminum, NGL, etc.production that has been curtailed, what will the effect on demamd be of all the new gas fired power generation. Lots of variables, and a strong case to buy natural gas E&Ps. But what I worry about more is the state of the whole market, and the combined effects of possible inflation and sky high energy prices on stock prices. I still have some E&Ps and royalty trusts, but I think cash is the place to be so I'm hoping to unload into strength brought on by the cold weather and inventory crisis. Some speculative puts on tech can also spice up your portfolio, but puts are getting very expensive which is another sign of the end of the bull. Sharp