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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (38227)	12/16/2000 1:33:24 PM
From: minorejoy2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

I read that Dick Arms spoke on CNBC Friday morning (ARMS index and ARMS summation index). Is this the same as TRIN? Post said he only comes on TV rarely, and usually at key turning points. Said he stated that the ARMS numbers showed the most oversold numbers and that the last times they were this bad that the markets went up 12% (end of Oct rally) and 20% (Nov 30 rally). I know nothing of Trin...does this sound right, and does it jive with your midterm stochs? M

To: Chris who wrote (38227)	12/16/2000 1:48:38 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

I guess we are using different start points or different settings for the mid term stoch. I have a reading as of Friday's close of 51 so plenty more downside to go using my settings although bounces off of the 50 line are very common so maybe we aren't as far off as it seems numerically. My short term is at 7 so we are likely about to get a short term bounce but then after that??? ADX and long term stoch have both made lower highs and MACD is eroding so it doesn't look good long term still. If we keep following the bearish pattern, then it should be about a week or two of rally then another 3 weeks worth of drops. That is only using the bearish 1/3 of the move up then the rest of the cycle down pattern. Of course I weigh a whole slew of other stuff before making a call like that. I just wrote someone else in an e-mail that I see the downside limited to around 2275 NDX and I don't really expect that low of a target right now. I have an indicator showing bounce Monday, an overbought VIX and a cycle low all pointing to this down move almost being over at least short term. My high low charts aren't backing it up as much however and the NYSE hi lo looks better than the NASDAQ's. I haven't done my usual weekend chart routine yet so it is too early to make a definitive analysis yet and longer term, I haven't a clue. First impression is bounce Monday early Tuesday but then I have disagreement in my non tech versus tech charts. OEX wants a double bottom but my NDX wants that 2275 to be met for fork fulfillment and if not this cycle low then the next one at slightly higher values since it is an uptrending fork which was aroud 2250 last week. If the FOMC wasn't next week, I would probably dip in on a low Monday for a couple day rally then trade from there on how it developed. On an FA front, the concensus seems to be expectations of lower earnings for the next 2-3 quarters and no rate cuts by the Fed until after the new year which means if you factor in a 6 - 9 month lag, earnings won't improve again until late next year. In other words, swing trading all year and no buy and hold until next summer. Good Luck, Lee