To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (2836 ) 12/17/2000 2:07:57 PM From: zbyslaw owczarczyk Respond to of 3891 European Inflation Likely to Slow as Euro Gains and Oil Falls ``It's fair to say, that euro-land growth is not slowing as much as U.S. growth,'' Bank of America's Codogno said. Paris, Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Economic reports are likely to show inflation starting to slow in the 11 European Union countries using the euro, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. Consumer price growth in Italy, the region's third-largest economy, probably slowed to 0.1 percent in December, after climbing 0.3 percent a month earlier, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. For the year, prices probably rose to 2.7 percent, preliminary data from 12 cities on Thursday is expected to show. Consumer inflation in Belgium, to be published on Friday, is also expected to have eased this month. ``Thanks to the euro's recent comeback and falling oil prices, December could mark a turning point for euro-land inflation,'' said Lorenzo Codogno, an economist at Bank of America. As a result he says it's unlikely the ECB will raise borrowing costs ``in the foreseeable future.'' The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold for a 10th consecutive week last Thursday, following seven increases in the preceding 13 months. Inflation in the euro area fell to 2.7 percent in October. While down from a six-year high of 2.8 percent in September, inflation still breached the central bank's 2 percent ceiling for the fifth straight month. Three-Month High In November, euro-zone prices got a boost from rebounding oil prices, a report due on Friday is expected to show, before falling back in December. Brent crude oil rose almost 9 percent in the first part of November. It's shed about a quarter of its value since then. Meanwhile, the euro rebounded to a three-month high of 89.99 cents on Friday, up 9 percent from its record low on Oct. 26. The U.S. economy is slowing more than Europe's, raising the value of the euro against the dollar and reducing the cost of American imports. ``It's fair to say, that euro-land growth is not slowing as much as U.S. growth,'' Bank of America's Codogno said. Italy's economy probably expanded at 0.5 percent in the third quarter, a faster pace than the 0.3 percent recorded in the second quarter. The release is due on Wednesday. Industrial production in France rebounded in October, rising a monthly 0.3 percent compared with 0.1 percent in September, and an annual 3 percent compared with 3.4 percent a month earlier, a report Thursday is expected to show. Similar releases for Spain and the euro region as a whole are expected on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. A separate report on Thursday is expected to say that French consumers increased spending by 0.4 percent in November after 1.5 percent in October. Meanwhile, Italian consumers were more confident in December, with an index rising to a four-month high of 120 in December, up from 116.6 in November, a report on Friday is forecast to say. Following is a list of economic reports that will be released this week. All times are continental European times. Monday, Dec. 18: 6:00 Finnish producer price index 9:15 Swiss producer, import prices Noon Portuguese consumer prices Tuesday, Dec. 19: 9:00 Italian EU-harmonized CPI 9:30 Dutch unemployment 10:00 Austrian consumer prices Noon EU consumer prices Wednesday, Dec. 20: 6:00 Finnish unemployment 8:45 French industrial, manufacturing production 9:00 Italian GDP 9:45 Spanish industrial production 10:30 U.K. M4, bank lending reports 10:30 U.K. budget deficit Thursday, Dec. 21: 8:00 German producer prices 8:45 French 3rd-quarter pay 8:50 French household spending 9:00 Italian balance of trade, retail sales 10:00 Norwegian current account 10:30 U.K. GDP 13:00 Swedish import/export 17:30 Italian city CPI Friday, Dec. 22: 6:00 Finnish GDP 8:00 German import prices 8:45 French consumer prices 9:00 Italian trade balance 9:30 Dutch producer confidence 9:30 Italian consumer confidence 9:30 Danish producer prices 10:00 Swedish industrial production 10:00 Norwegian retail sales 10:30 U.K. balance of trade Noon EU industrial production