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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Malloy who wrote (44677)	12/16/2000 6:21:10 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

How about instead, we assume that csco's stock price stays the same is it right now...say $50...for the next 5 years. How about we assume they go on to grow revenue by 50% a year for 5 years...and actual earnings by 30%...and they trade with a p/e of 50 then...Hey what do you know that works out about right!...Now let's assume that they have a bit of trouble with vendor financing, telco's and pretty much every big company in corporate america slows cap ex spending, csco keeps printing shares like mad, the options games they play end, competition increases, margins decline, and they only grow revenue at 30% a year on average over the next 5 years. (this would still be huge growth given the size they will be in just two years) And let's also assume that quarter over quarter actual earnings growth flows the trend of the last 4 quarters but improves a fair bit...last 4 quarters have actual eps of 11 cents, 8 cents, 11 cents, and 11 cents...Now lets try to think about what people will pay for that trend in earnings growth...current p/e 120 ish...hmmmm. Sounds like csco is dead money for 5 years at best...sounds like csco should be smashed if the public would wake up and sell instead of waiting for them to disappoint in a quarter or two....In my mind csco already has disappointed. 11 c, 8 c, 11 c, 11 c. What are you paying for? CSCO is another LU all over again...know one wanted to admit it until it was way too late...just wait! Exec's jumping ship...just like LU, stock trending down, just like LU...chart gonna look just like LU. Bambs