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To: Boplicity who wrote (7613)	12/16/2000 5:47:35 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Greg, I do not think there will be a rate cut in DEC but am open to the possibility. 1) CPI showed a price increase in Nov 2) Bush wants an inflationary tax cut 3) Greenspan want to kill the rest of this bubble while he can If we get a rate cut, however, I will step away and watch the reaction. I expect serious resistance on the Nas at 3000 or so. OTOH if we do not get a rate cut, but it is already factored in, (or partially factored in), look out below. I believe a rate cut is partially factored in on Greenspan's comments. Has some of this latest decline, re-factored it out? How the hell do I know, but I am guessing not. I do not know if you only do tech or not. Take a look at some financial charts for me. I closed out Puts on C and MER as the Dow dropped 400 points after I bought them. I wish I bought twice as many as then I would have let half of them ride, same with CSCO. Citycorp and Merril Lynch are near all time highs. Money has been rotating like mad out of tech into "safe" financials. Chase has already warned, how long before other banks are forced to raise loan loss provisions? If they keep lending to keep the credit bubble going, it will be even worse later - IMHO. Savings rate is poor, the stock market is in shambles, loan rates are high, IF and I realize this is a big IF, but what the hell happens if housing starts to decline. Home backed loans, with layoffs coming (the market was cheering as job growth was declining), what will that do to financials? One way or another this all adds up to one big mess for somebody. Job competition remains high and no interest rate cuts, or people out of jobs in big debt. Even if I am wrong with that doom and gloom, why shouldn't some of these "safe" stocks start taking a big big beating, just on the basis that money can not rotate out of the Naz into the DOW forever. Personally, I think we will see the worst of all scenarios: a rate cut too late, people out of jobs and money both, panic selling of stocks to keep what money thay have, declining growth in high tech, people chasing the fewer and fewer stocks that are going up (until there is a big selloff in those too - like QCOM for example), etc etc etc. I bet you can think of many other reasons why I could be right. Try to think of any reasons why I might be wrong, ESPECIALLY ON THE FINANCIALS. I want to hear the other side. Please look at the 5 year charts on C and MER for me. MBI is another very very interesting chart. Greg, the dark side beckons, unless you can talk me out of it. Can you hear the call, Greg come to the dark side, Greg come to the dark side............. M