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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SGJ who wrote (25550)	12/16/2000 7:01:48 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Thanks qcoman!! Appreciate you posting that article. I don't know if you read my post Friday #25557 goes right along with your post. Closing: Dow down 264.71 CIEN up 3 51/64 PMCS up 1 7/16 AMCC up 1 1/2 Mentioned in the article I posted as the funds buying. Thanks again, dealie

To: SGJ who wrote (25550)	12/17/2000 2:35:33 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Respond to of 65232

See the discussion midway down re weeks 49 and 50: blarg.net This week's Long Term Signal rises to 3-BUY on a solid improvement to the advance-decline line. The stock market first rallied spectacularly on Tuesday when the Fed chairman Alan Greenspan spoke about the economic slowdown risks at a banking conference. Investors immediately determined that the tightening bias will no longer remain. The market rallied well on Friday, when economic statistics came in weaker, and after a pullback day on lower volume. Investors were impressed with the strength in Intel (INTC) stock, despite an earnings warning. When stocks stop falling on bad news, the downside is considered limited and the bad news has been discounted. Interest rates have been dropping dramatically during the last two weeks, and the rates are well below four weeks ago for all seven treasury maturities. When I consider that the federal funds rate is targeted by the Fed at 6.500%, and the 3-month t-bill is the highest treasury rate at 6.096%, that tells me that an easing is the next Fed move. When short term rates are higher than long term rates, the economy slows down. This always happens. Then the situation needs to reverse thru a Fed easing, which is bullish for the stock market. The members of the NYSE continue their net purchases at 18.997 million shares, and that's enough for another confirmation of a big rally ahead for the stock market. This was the 4th week in a row that the four-week moving average was above the threshhold +20 million shares, indicating concentrated buying by the members. This is a solidly bullish indicator. Our only bearish indicator is the Investor's Intelligence sentiment figures, which is the usual state for this indicator. I'm toying with the idea of substituting my Option Timing Signal for this sentiment indicator. One problem with that idea is simplicity. I need a spreadsheet to calculate it. It can change daily. That's work for a casual weekly stock market investor. All three of my timing signals are bullish, and I agree with them. The downside seems limited to me, while the upside looks substantial. I'm going to remain fully invested in stocks for this possibility. With the latest Long Term Signal, even conservative investors should understand that the risk/reward ratio is now very favorable for owning stocks.