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To: mishedlo who wrote (7620)	12/16/2000 8:45:42 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Well, Mike, I think Tuesday is the critical point. If Mr G. does not cut the rate, or does not swear on his honor to cut it in January we are dead. And I am with you all the way. I think Mr G. can see the truth, but he has to convince the other ivory towered bankers on the board to act and thats questionable. They have had 10 years of bullish market and thinking and its really tough to change. This season will be a financial disaster for stores (JMHO) and suppliers even if they sell the same $ amount as one year ago. But the bankers may not truly feel it until January or later when credit cards go unpaid, when stores ask for loan extensions. In addition, with the NAs down 50%, if one adds in brokers fees, spreads, margin losses, and having to sell at absolute lows due to margin- I rate the loss to a common tech late-comer as closer to 80%. That is not reflected in the Dow-yet, and it may appear not-so-bad to a banker who uses it as a reference for the influence of past rate decisions. If the Feds could stand up and say the truth, it would be that the country cannot have the common investor or worker become millionaires just by investing for a few years. For one thing, that would cause inflation.For another, perhaps half the Msft workers would retire soon , and there is already a shortage of 800k workers in the field. So I am half cash today, and on Tuesday I may be 75% cash if they say the wrong words. One should never overate the intelligence of the government- they probably have no idea of the total IRS refunds due to tech investors in April. Which reminds to me unload tax-loss stocks before December ends. Regards, and thanks for your work Sig

To: mishedlo who wrote (7620)	12/17/2000 8:31:44 AM
From: avanti77	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Hi Mike, I'm not trying to convince you of anything, except to take it easy with the onslaught of negativity. Like I said, I understand your position. I exited this market to a 100% cash position in February 2000 because I felt like it was an accident waiting to happen. I've been trading in and out from there, and still have solid gains this year. Gave back about 10% of those gains in the last 6 weeks as things got really dicey. There continue to be stocks with "lofty" valuations. However, there are also many stocks that have been slaughtered where the downside risk is minimal. With a 50% haircut on the Nasdaq, one needs to pick their downside plays carefully. At the moment, I'm taking it day by day with my eye on the FOMC meeting Tuesday. Obviously, it's not easy to read the tea leaves. With the sheer volume of earnings warnings, particularly now in the banking sector, it's entirely possible that the Fed will move quickly and ease by .25 basis points immediately. I'm watching and waiting... I've noted many more articles in mainstream news magazines discussing the bearish climate -- which can be argued as a contrarian indicator. I guess when we see a picture of a bear on the cover of Time or Newsweek, it'll definitely be time to start buying. Bottom line... it'll take some time for all this to work it's way through the markets. The big money on the short side has been made. Sure, there will be places to make more $ by shorting, and I may occasionally make such a play. There's also places to make money going long. I always keep in mind that the market is a forward looking (and highly emotional) mechanism, and once those rate cuts start coming, you'll need to adjust your thinking. The easy momentum days are done for a long while. I was surprised that they lasted so long to begin with. re: Are financials headed down or not? Why? Good point. If the fed lowers, kneejerk reaction will be up, so therefore not the best time to short - even if they are in trouble. You might be interested in this article. contraryinvestor.com Anyway Mike, I don't pretend to know how the market will act from here, I'm just taking it day by day. It's the holiday season, and there are other things to think about and be grateful for, and that's the main reason I asked you to lighten up. Fortunes have been made and lost, and will be made again. Family, friends, good health are the real things in life to be grateful for... Donna

To: mishedlo who wrote (7620)	12/17/2000 10:28:16 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13572

mishedlo: Shorting at or near the bottom is as foolhardy as piling in and buying at the top. The time to short was when NASDAQ was at 4000 in August, not when NASDAQ is at 2500-2600. The NASDAQ is unlikely to go to 1900 because it is a discounting mechanism. It looks out about six months in advance and there is NO ONE who does not see interest rates lower by then. It the NASDAQ does drop into the 2100-2200 range, which I think unlikely, it will bounce back so quickly as to be all but useless to the individual investor. I am NOT gobbling up "tech stock bargains"; on the other hand, I am not panic-selling quality tech stocks like EMC, CSCO, QCOM, etc. simply because tech stocks are temporarily out of favor. Common sense will tell you that there is probably no more than 1-2 months left in the tech bear market. Without a major exogenous (international) shock or serious internal problems (rampant inflation, massive and widening Fed debt), no NASDAQ bear market has lasted more than 12 months in the last 50 years. The only winning plays going forward are: 1. Avoid doing stupid things on either the buy side or sell-short side. 2. Diversify. When the market slowly recovers, there will be several other sectors and stocks other than tech that participate. 3. Keep cash on hand to scoop up bargains. No -- I do not mean JNPR at 140, I mean things like battered semiconductor stocks like AMAT, NVLS, TXN (if it dips below 40) that have cutting-edge products, dominant market positions, and strong leadership. Perhaps not right now, but after first rate cut. Your doom and gloom is as excessive and misplaced as the euphoria in February and March 2000.