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To: blankmind who wrote (26130)12/17/2000 12:23:11 AM
From: Bill Fischofer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Re: Ad models

The problem with advertising models is that it is still far too early in the development of the Internet to say for sure what role, if any, advertising will play in the future. In the early stages of every new medium there is a tendency to adopt the structures and conventions of existing media. For example, early television was "radio with pictures". Similarly the early Internet was viewed as "magazines without paper" hence the nomenclature of "page views", "banners", "sidebars", etc. And today we have so-called "broadband" being positioned as "television on demand" with emphasis on "rich content" (a transparent euphemism for TV-style commercials).

The problem with these sort of linear extrapolations from current media to the Internet is that none of them are likely to survive in any recognizable form as the Internet matures into a genuinely new medium over the next decade. Fundamentally, the basic problem that Madison Avenue has to face is that whereas in older broadcast-style media the producer controlled the experience with the Internet it is the consumer who is in charge. Even today tools are readily available which effectively block intrusive advertising. I've been using adsubtract.com for years and can't recall the last time I was subjected to ads (banner or otherwise) on web pages. Whether the sites believe they are "serving" ads to me or not I never see them so they might as well not exist. I have no doubt that future tools will provide even more sophisticated consumer control.

So the problem really is twofold. First, to find a vehicle for "sponsored information" which consumers really want (as opposed to what a producer might wish to force upon the consumer) and second to develop a viable subscription model based on the notion that consumers will really pay for information/entertainment they find of value. My personal belief is that Yahoo is probably the best positioned "web brand" to do this but until they make this transition the market will remain nervous about the future reliability of the current ad revenue model (Wall Street knows all about ad-filters even if they don't talk much about them for obvious reasons).

Yahoo management has hinted for some time that "premium services" (e.g., paid subscriptions) are in the offing and my guess is that we'll see that plan begin to unfold over the next year. If they can prove that plan viable then Yahoo will be golden. I didn't buy YHOO when it came public because I was worried then about the viability of the ad model. Obviously that was a mistake in the short run but I believe a great part of YHOO's weakness this year is the broader market keying in on these same concerns. I will, however, not make the same mistake twice and intend to be a buyer if YHOO can start generating subscription revenue since I believe this will be an enormous growth area for them and provide the sort of solid financial foundation that Wall Street wants to see going forward.