Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (61825)	12/16/2000 10:49:59 PM
From: Peach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

JXM, "Somewhere in the the middle" is probably correct. I appreciated your post because it helped me to step back and really consider the fact that I am better off than I was a few years ago... in spite of the past painful months. This is the first bear market I have experienced since beginning investing. I have been shocked and confused. Your take on the market has helped me "get a grip." Thank you. Peach

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (61825)	12/17/2000 12:02:43 AM
From: Atin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

I'm thinking somewhere in the middle -- I don't think we will see the outright vertical leaps we got used to seeing in our favorite stocks. Mostly because the earnings aren't really accelerating like they used to. Earnings were accelerating due to the many "discontinuous innovations" that hit the market at about the same time. These innovations (like supply chain management, communication, networking etc) created serious production and distribution efficiencies that helped the bottom lines of companies very quickly. These efficiencies are getting harder to generate now as the low hanging fruit has already been picked. Lowered interest rates and more money supply out there isn't really going to help anything except speculative ventures (remember the dot bombs? <g>), earnings are the real fuel under stocks and until we see earnings growth acceleration again, we're not going to see the same boom we just saw. I think what we just saw was a particularly nice combination of speculative abandon due to low interest rates and high earnings growth acceleration. I think we're in for a period of flat to down markets with high volatility. Good for short term traders, bad for buy and hold. But then I always thought that buy and holders were doing some sort of penance anyway -- maybe feeling pain is part of the goal. <g>