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To: energyplay who wrote (81928)12/17/2000 2:01:57 AM
From: Don England  Respond to of 95453
 
can't locate the figures but i believe that the latest re-balance in the nas. 100 will take out many stocks that have sunk appreciably and lost mkt. cap, thus lowering their p/e's, and replace them with others still having muscular mkt. caps and quite high p/e's, thus adding another layer of instability to that index to make it even more shortable. don



To: energyplay who wrote (81928)12/17/2000 11:44:30 AM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Considering your argument and also the response to it, I think you are probably correct. It just seemed to me that the Dow had not really been hit with any serious selling yet.

I hadn't thought about the change of stocks in the QQQ.

I hade been maintaining a short position on XLK, the technology index, for a long time and found it somewhat harrowing.

I did in fact put in an order to short QQQ about ten days ago, i think, but missed the closing bell by 30 seconds.

But if QQQ take another bounce up, I think I will short it.

I think that markets in general are so volatile and so vulnerable to further collapse that I may even do some in and out trading shorting the various indexes. I have never approved of this kind of gambling on the market, but with a $30 round trip possible with a good broker, I think all you have to do is wait for the market to go down some, cover part of the shorts, and wait for it to gyrate up again. I think we may be in a unique environment for the next year.

Mainly, however, I am maintaining steady long positions in every sort of energy play except futures, which are too wild for me. I think someone with a great deal of money might safely buy natural gas futures contracts for 2003 and sell them at a huge profit before new sources of gas can come on line. But it is not for me.