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Politics : The Left Wing Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robwin who wrote (1275)	12/17/2000 11:57:46 AM
From: bonnuss_in_austin	Respond to of 6089

Hi robwin et al ... re market: I think this poster 'Earlie' has achieved the ability to analyze the stock market sans emotion. Also appears to have an in-depth knowledge about technology, and a shrewd ability to identify global market trends in specific and general sectors. I am preparing for such a bleak scenario that he/she outlines. The fiber and storage sectors still carry absurdly high P/Es, I'm sure you know. Time for the rose-colored glasses to come off. First the 'excuse' in Sept/Oct was the traditional EOY (fiscal) tax loss selling by the funds. Then, because 'election uncertainty.' Now, 'Greenspan MUST lower rates.' This one 'feels' to me as empty ... as much of a 'pipe dream,' as were the others. On any pre-Greenspan "rally," I'm selling JDSU (rather small position), VIGN (same) -- which will pare down my LTB&H positions to about 30%. With a 70% cash position, I intend to buy puts on specific bloated P/E stocks from one to four months out. JDSU, SDLI, EMC and JNPR are on my hit list at moment. Holding March or April puts on RIMM, CIEN and CSCO. Will also trade QQQ puts month to month. Goal: capital preservation, augmented by incremental (small, in other words) gains via puts, to grow principal. My great overriding fear located in Austin, TX, with a heavy concentration of tech here as major factor in economy, is the inevitable, IMO, impact on real estate market. That's worrying me more these days than the market, because I've established my tactical strategy (going to so much cash has given me a comfort level (less stress) that I haven't experienced in four years. I feel like I need to 'take profits,' which are substantial, on the house I bought in 1997, before they vaporize, you know? Sigh. PS: Just got off phone with real estate broker for weekly 'pulse check' on local situation. She says interest rates (mortgages) are ALREADY falling; thinks G'span will cut; however, she's not basing that on what most of us look at (and fear). Suggests waiting 'til early to mid-January to try to determine if the country is really in or getting close to recession, before making any real estate sales decisions. For what that's worth. 'b-i-a' ###