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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (64459)	12/17/2000 11:19:43 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Michael, the IV is a more accurate indicator of fear now. The VIX is price sensitive and due to various hedging strategies it is by now not as accurate as before. Seasonally we are approaching a short term bottom. Inflation is receding in Europe and some structural financial changes are working their magic on the continent. It is very possible that Europe will take the place of the engine powering the world. AS to the US the political situation combined with stock over-valuation has brought this market to it's knees. China India, SEA, CEE, and Russia will finally start to soak in tech products as prices have fallen substantially. WS was betting on those developments to early and they will start materializing by next year reviving the tech sector. If the US political scene will improve substantially US stock markets will follow. Presently in the rest of the world, there is an environment of big disbelief and disapointment about the US democracy and the shadowy power brokers who brought Bush to power. Those expression are in almost in every newspaper in Europe and Far East. I am not sure how many on SI read the Herald Tribune, The Telegraph, Die Welt, Die Zeit, LaSierra and others. cnn.com But the closeness of the Bush-Gore contest, the legal wrangles and the length of time taken to determine a result have further damaged a presidency already weakened by the impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton. The new president will struggle to assert his authority domestically, let alone on the international scene. Outsiders will fear a president with his eye from the start on mid-term elections and in thrall to the focus groups. Despite the shower of congratulations now flowing, and the angling for early invitations to the United States to meet the new man in the White House, the arrival in the Oval Office of George W. Bush will send tremors through Europe’s capitals. Essentially it is a fear of the unknown. Few European leaders have even met the governor of Texas. None of them was going to tempt providence by saying so, but most had been hoping for a Gore victory simply because many of them knew the vice president personally, they respected his knowledge of international affairs and they liked the idea of continuity. Now they will have to get to know Bush, a man who has hardly ever travelled outside his own country. The second reason for alarm in European capitals is that Condoleeza Rice, Bush’s foreign affairs guru who is expected to become his national security adviser, suggested during the campaign that a Bush administration would pull back U.S. troops from worldwide peace-keeping duties. ............ British Prime Minister Tony Blair will be worried because he has had a particularly close relationship with Clinton. They have jointly made the case for “Third Way” politics, combining pro-business policies, tough lines on law-and-order issues and social justice measures. Blair’s Conservative opponent, William Hague, is one of the few Europeans who has travelled to America to meet Bush. Hague openly backed Bush in the U.S. election and has openly adopted some of his programme of "compassionate Conservatism." He will be hoping for a payoff. BWDIK Haim