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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (87047)	12/17/2000 11:24:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

My reply to the following response to a doom and gloom forcast I put on SI. <<mishedlo: Shorting at or near the bottom is as foolhardy as piling in and buying at the top. The time to short was when NASDAQ was at 4000 in August, not when NASDAQ is at 2500-2600. Your doom and gloom is as excessive and misplaced as the euphoria in February and March 2000. >> I agree. Sort of. After the market fell to 2600 it was not the time to short. However on a silly, quick, overheated runup from 2500 to over 3000, it was. We will likely keep seeing the swings, and no one can answer my question about the financial sector, except to agree. The FED wants layoffs to slow the growth. In the credit bubble we are in, what will layoffs do to loss provisions of banks? Are financials at or near all time highs? Can money keep rotating out of the Nas into the NYSE forever? Consumer debt is at an all time high just as layoffs are about to begin! IS THE PUBLIC EVEN AWARE OF THE CREDIT BUBBLE? These interesting thoughts just occurred to me, as I was typing. OTOH, if we do not see layoffs, and job competition remains high, that will be one more reason for Greenspan to not lower rates. Greenspan has blown it BIG BIG time IMHO. The increase in liquidity for the Y2K scare was absurd. Instead of increasing liquidity at that point he should have been lowereing it. He started way way too late, probably a year too late, so now we must pay big big time IMHO. As to the bottom. Almost everyone thinks the bottom is in. When everyone believes that, we are not close, cause the masses are wrong about these things. There has been no panic yet. People are still going on margin. People think better times are ahead. WHILE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS WAY OFF ITS HIGHS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS STILL AT HISTORICALLY HIGH LEVELS! BTW, this is anothe factor the FED uses to judge rate changes. I may not know where the bottom is, but I believe we have far far to go. Take a look at the 5 year charts on about any tech stock. PE's are still at absurd highs, while GROWTH IS SLOWING and will continue to do so IMHO. The tech market does not like slowing growth. Like I said I will be cautious about it. I have not held a short position overnight in fact. That is pretty damn cautious. As to my doom and gloom being misplaced. I do not think so. The masses have not panicked. Many are still in denial. When the masses are predicting more doom and gloom, the bottom will be at hand. In the meantime I remain extremely bearish in outlook, but not absurdly so in practice. Finally. You think the bottom is close at hand. Tell me WHERE IS THE TOP? What is the upside from here. 3000? 3500? 4000? THE DAYS OF MASS EUPHORIA ARE OVER! We can agree on that I assume. On that basis I think the Nas will have a trading range over the next few years of say 1900-4000. At 3000 we are right in the middle, but a middle that still has not found the bottom. I may go long when the tick counts gets extreme enough, but I remain convinced that the dark side is the better way to be until we have found that elusive bottom. M