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To: edamo who wrote (163279)12/17/2000 2:57:11 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 176387
 
Fed Seen Paving Way for U.S. Rate Cuts

By REUTERS

Filed at 9:31 a.m. ET

December 17, 2000

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It will be the thought of an interest rate easing, not the deed, that counts when Federal Reserve policymakers meet on Tuesday for the last time this year to discuss the U.S. economy.

What world financial markets are looking for this week is not cuts in borrowing costs -- those are widely deemed to be a few weeks off even though the economy has already slowed drastically. What they want to hear, analysts say, is a formal expression of the Fed's openness to such rate easings.

Judging from a slew of recent comments by the Fed's top brass, that is just what they will get. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues have made it abundantly clear that they now regard a sharp slowdown in growth as at least as big a risk to the economy as an inflationary overheating.

That acknowledgment marks the first step on the Fed's path toward cutting the key federal funds overnight bank lending rate, which determines interest rates throughout the economy and far beyond, from its current level of 6.5 percent.

``Look for a balanced risk assessment, with a small probability that the Fed will even acknowledge a slowing economy as the predominant risk,'' Banc of America Securities in New York advised its customers on Friday.

The Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets behind closed doors from 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) on Tuesday. It is due to announce its decision at around 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT).

The FOMC meeting comes against the backdrop of an economy that has slowed dramatically from the inflation-prone pace of growth seen earlier this year and last.

Industrial production, consumer confidence and spending all have fallen off sharply and stocks have sold off dramatically since their highs of last winter. Meanwhile, the latest inflation readings have been relatively benign.

HERE'S THE PLAN

Greenspan himself gave the marching orders earlier this month when he provided his most explicit acknowledgment to date of the economic slowdown under way.

``In an economy that already has lost some momentum, one must remain alert to the possibility that greater caution and weakening asset values in financial markets could signal or precipitate an excessive softening in household and business spending,'' he told a banking group.

Investors heard the often cryptic Greenspan loud and clear: No longer is inflation the prime economic risk, as the Fed had claimed throughout the year. Indeed, rate cuts may be needed soon to prevent the economy from hitting a brick wall.

That posture signals a drastic shift from the Fed's six rate rises between June 1999 and May of this year that were aimed at keeping inflation under wraps in the booming economy.

As to the extent of the rate cuts that the majority of Fed watchers forecast for next year, opinions vary. But an increasing number of them think the powerful U.S. central bank may start easing off the monetary brake as soon as its Jan. 30/31 meeting, just days after President-elect George W. Bush takes up residence in the White House.

``If the economic momentum decelerates faster, a cut may come as early as Jan. 31,'' said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis.

Rate cuts early next year may go a long way to ensuring cordial relations between the White House and the fiercely independent Fed. Already, Bush has banged the drum about his fears of an excessive economic slowdown. Dick Cheney, his Vice President-elect, has even warned of an impending recession.



To: edamo who wrote (163279)12/18/2000 1:19:57 PM
From: John Koligman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
Edamo,

Ah, the continuing benefits of the 'just in time' model! Keystone Cops strike again <ggg>...

Regards,
John

Dell struggles with PC shipment delays
By Joe Wilcox
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
December 18, 2000, 9:20 a.m. PT
This year, Santa may be leaving some Dell Computer customers IOUs under the Christmas tree.

Dell has been struggling to get its top consumer systems--the Dimension 8100 desktop PC and Inspiron 8000 notebook--to customers, with some people reporting six-week delays on orders placed in November.

For some Dell shoppers, this means the shiny new PC or notebook they had been counting on for Christmas won't arrive until after the new year.

"This is obviously mis-execution by Dell, and frankly it's quite dangerous," said Gartner analyst Kevin Knox. "People went to Dell all the way back in November, and if they can't deliver product before Christmas, this is going to leave a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths."

The problems appear to predominantly affect the two top consumer models and are unrelated, according to Dell. Many of the Dimension 8100 ordering problems stem from a Web ordering glitch that let customers order a USB keyboard and mouse that are incompatible. Supply problems with 8X CD-RW drives and 32MB graphics cards apparently slowed Inspiron 8000 orders.

For Dell, the delays are doubly disastrous, say analysts. With consumer PC sales down anywhere from 18 percent to 30 percent from last holiday season, Dell cannot afford to leave sales on the table. Potentially worse, the problem affects the company's highest-profile and highest-margin consumer systems.

"This news based on customer feedback about the 8100 is a disappointment, because this is Dell's latest product--highest-margin desktop--and during a major slowdown in the PC industry, Dell is having trouble getting its product to customers," said Technology Business Research analyst Brooks Gray.



Do you have an opinion or comment on this story? Tell us.

Dell places part of the blame on higher-than-expected demand. "The (demand for) 32MB graphics cards beat all forecasts, so we did have a supply issue," said Dell spokesman Tom Kehoe. He noted that Dell stretched out the lead times on the Inspiron 8000 beyond the typical four business days.

Kehoe said the graphics card problem has been fixed with the supplier, ATI. Dell expects to begin quoting normal shipping times on the Inspiron 8000 starting Tuesday.

He also confirmed the keyboard-mouse incompatibility problem that stalled 8100 orders. Instead "of monkeying around with this, everybody who ordered this configuration will get a USB mouse. End of problem," he said.

Dell estimates that only about 5 percent of Dimension 8100 orders were affected by the keyboard-mouse incompatibility problem.

But other problems, including the lack of availability of 17-inch flat-panel monitors, have also held up orders.

Dell's problems with the Dimension 8100 are not the first affecting Pentium 4 systems. In late November, Best Buy pulled HP Pentium 4 systems from store shelves after discovering a bug that affected how the computer's basic input-output system (BIOS) interacted with the Intel processors.

Boxed in
The Dimension 8100, Dell's first consumer Pentium 4 system, sports the new look introduced with the OptiPlex 150. With the new model, the company abandoned its signature beige for dark gray. The Dimension 8100 also received THX certification, making it one of the first entertainment-oriented PCs on the market.

The Inspiron 8000 introduced graphics capabilities comparable to those of desktop models and the ability to run DVD and CD-RW drives at the same time, both distinguishing features.

The black eye to the Dimension 8100, which incorporates the first major Dell chassis redesign in about four years, is something "the company cannot afford," Gray said.

He added, "There's a risk here that end-user customer satisfaction could fall."

To its credit, Dell has aggressively dealt with the string of unrelated problems connected with introducing new PC models with cutting-edge technology. The Round Rock, Texas-based company has used its support Web site to reach out to frustrated customers and has sweetened some orders with extras.

But that may not be enough given the current buying climate, analysts say.

"Dell can ill afford this kind of problem in the consumer market, especially where they are not nearly as strong as they are in commercial," Knox said.

During the third quarter, Dell pulled into fifth place in U.S. consumer PC sales, with 5.8 percent market share, according to IDC. Hewlett-Packard and Compaq Computer locked in a near tie with 19.8 percent share, followed by Gateway and Emachines, respectively, with 14.6 percent and 9.3 percent market share.

"It's a major problem, especially (as) people have bought these things as gifts and they want them for Christmas," Knox said. "I wouldn't be surprised if people canceled their orders and went down to the Gateway Country stores."

Some people have done just that. One person posting on Dell's support Web site said Saturday, "Today, I walked into a Gateway Country store and ordered a system better than an 8100 for less money, scheduled to be on my doorstep 12/21."

On Friday, Gateway for the first time started carrying stock of three PC models in its Country stores. The marketing shift lasts through the holiday shopping season.

You want it when?
Mock orders placed Monday by CNET News.com with Dell found lead times to be long but not unreasonable. A Dimension 8100 has an average delivery time of 2 1/2 weeks from date of order, a Dell sales representative said. A top-of-the-line Inspiron 8000 ordered Monday would tentatively arrive in early January, which works out to a lead time of nine business days.

But that may not satisfy consumers who ordered early and won't see their systems for Christmas. In postings on Dell's support Web site, many frustrated shoppers noted reasonable order times that turned into multiple delays.

"My Dimension 8100's ship date has changed more times than Palm Beach has counted its ballots," noted one poster. The Christmas gift now has a delivery date of Jan. 4. "When I ordered this system, I was certain that I would receive it before the next president was chosen."

Another Dell support Web site poster recounted placing a Dimension 8100 order Nov. 20--the day of availability--with an initial ship date of Nov. 30, which changed to Dec. 7, then Dec. 8, and finally Dec. 13 before the customer canceled the order. Problems with the USB keyboard compelled the poster to start from scratch Dec. 13, when a sales representative promised a ship date of Dec. 15.

Instead, "the ship date on the new order is 1/2/01, over 6 weeks from my original order date," the Dell customer wrote.

Other Dell buyers voiced similar gripes, which the company's support site moderator Chris Chandler handled with some explanation.

He cited the graphics card supply problem on the Inspiron 8000 and a shortage of CD-RW drives. "There were a lot of systems waiting on these CD-RWs and they will all be moving soon," he wrote Friday.

But the major problem appeared to be with the Dimension 8100, where a glitch with Dell's Web ordering system allowed many customers to order an enhanced USB keyboard and Microsoft IntelliMouse that were incompatible. That problem has since been corrected.

The good news for Dell is that neither system is high volume, although both are high margin and affect customers willing to spend a bundle on a new computer. Either way, given the tough sales climate, analysts predict the glitches will hurt Dell.

"It's just unfortunate, but there's little good reason," Knox said. "It's mis-execution by Dell and very bad timing."



To: edamo who wrote (163279)12/18/2000 9:22:22 PM
From: mepci  Respond to of 176387
 
Ed: I read your posts with a lot of respect. Unfortunately I will need a lot of digging to intelligently respond to your posts. May be we can pick up this subject in the new year again.