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To: mishedlo who wrote (7636)	12/17/2000 12:16:13 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

Mishedlo: In answer to your post... 1."What will layoffs do to loss provisions of banks? Are financials at or near all-time highs?" Bad credit losses have already been factored in and discounted (for the most part). As to financial being at all time highs: Stock/52-wk high/current price MWD/110/68 7/8 LEH/80/ 61 3/8 C/ 59/48 SCH/44 3/4/ 28 3/4 CMB/67/44 I don't know what you're looking at, but most financials are well off their highs. Most are at very reasonable PE's and will do well in 2001 in an environment of lowered interest rates. 2. "PE's are still absurdly high". For some stocks, such as CIEN, BRCD, JNPR, RIMM, etc., yes. Other tech stocks have corrected significantly and now have PEG's which are quite reasonable for their growth rates and prospects over the next 2-3 years. It is important to look past the lowered earnings expectations of Q1 and possibly Q2. This has nothing to do with the fundamentals and business outlook of franchise stock such as GLW, SANM, EMC, SEBL but is a temporary phenomenon caused solely by the Fed. 3. "There has been no panic". And there won't be, either. The concept of massive panic selling to define a bottom is as outmoded and useless as anything I've heard. Quite frankly, the individual investor has grown up, in this regard. Most investors have suffered significant losses but the vast bulk of selling has already occurred. The people holding tech stocks now realize that it is too late to sell and there is little to be gained by selling at or near the bottom. 4. "Where is the upside from here?" Probably at 3000 for this year. We probably will be in a trading range between 2600 - 3100 for the first half of 2001, while the last of the Fed rate hikes work their way through the market. My guess is that the NASDAQ will slowly work its way higher over the latter half of 2001 as a series of interest rate cuts similarly work their way into the market. NASDAQ 4000?! Not in 2001. I think NASDAQ will finish 2001 at 3400-3500 range; this is simply a guess, not based on technical analysis. Even so, that is 40% above where we are now. I'll take that anyday. Foolish? Hardly. If we do close at or near 3000 this year, that is only a 15% gain YOY. Hardly excessive, IMO. 5. "Investor sentiment is at or near an all-time high". Difficult to know what that means. At any rate, hardly useful. What I think it means is that most investors realize we are at or near a bottom and should be higher in 12 months -- and they are probably right. More important is the bearish sentiment in the investment and economic community. There is significant sentiment on Wall St. that the rate hikes were indeed overdone and that we are perilously close to a recession. Greenspan DOES hear this and is more concerned about what institutional investors and economists think than what you or I think. 5. One last comment -- I have neither the time nor patience to sit in front of a computer screen all day and look for upticks and downticks to guess where the market is going in the next hour or two. Even if I could do this profitably,(and I, and most small investors, can't), I don't want to. There is plenty of money to be made in the long-term making sensible investments and doing sensible things. If I become glued to my computer and a NASDAQ Level II screen, I have permitted myself to become enslaved by my money. Life is too short and too wonderful for that.

To: mishedlo who wrote (7636)	12/17/2000 12:43:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

A word on inflation. My answer to the following post is the link below. <<(3) Inflation ...... While we see very little evidence of inflation in our economy, this word has been used more by the fed than anything else to place us where we are today. We are at the mercy of the Fed. .......>> Please check out the following link. mwhodges.home.att.net I have not studied this "doom and gloom" report seriously yet so I will not comment. I am seeking comments from others right now as to why this is or is not correct. As always, I want to hear both sides of the story. I will make my own decision about which side is right. At any rate, it sure does explain why Greenspan has been harping about inflation that none of us could see. That thought alone tells me that #3 above is wrong. Comments on this link anyone? M