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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (25597)	12/17/2000 11:56:42 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

LimmerMan, not all inverted yield curves result in recessions but when the Fed is asleep at the wheel, recessions follow in the past, the Fed has raised a final time exactly when they needed to cut they got faked out by dismantled engines, slow layoffs I doubt that happens this time the Fed knows all about that fake but the Fed might WANT a flat quarter, as in 1.5-2.5% GDP trouble is, they overshoot consistently then their obsession for seeing inflation interferes they saw higher energy costs as inflationary, WRONG slightly inflationary for consumers, but hugely recessionary for corporate profits Rivlin thinks we get 2% GDP in Q1 I think she has a good grip of Greeny's goal I think the Fed will overshoot heck, we got 2.4% GDP in Q3 just recently on the other hand, when Clorox warns, FedEx warns the Fed MUST hear that, and respond the faster they respond, the less likely a recession the key factor most people overlook is: when Fed begins to cut rates, InfoTech planners within corporations DONT cancel their springtime orders I think that was behind Greeny's statement two weeks ago but anyone who thinks Greeny intends to bail out the stock market is simply dreaming / jim